Today (Jul. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures were buoyed to post gains in overnight trading as the forecast of hot and dry weather in the Midwest in the next two weeks posed a threat to crop output, and meal futures also fluctuate to tick higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract more low-level trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,750-2,800 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,800, Shandong 2,770-2,790, Jiangsu 2,750-2,770, Dongguan 2,760-2,770, and Guangxi 2,750-2,770). Meal prices are shored up to snap off declines to post moderate rebounds as oil mills are propping up prices in view of better soybean meal trading recently and the return of the weather speculation on U.S. soybeans. However, Chinese government was said to approve some 6 mln tonnes of import quotas in two tranches for U.S. soybeans free of the additional tariff for crushing enterprises. In the meantime, domestic importers are scooping up on South American soybeans. Therefore, soybean arrivals will be huge later. Nevertheless, the demand outlook remains gloomy due to the lingering African swine fever, which is particularly severe in South China. And mills are choked up by swelling soybean meal inventories, especially in East China. Besides, Chinese and U.S. representatives will hold face-to-face trade talks in Shanghai from next Monday to Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Meal prices are thus curbed to have limited rises. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips, but not to chase after excessive price rises.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan at 2,340-2,450 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,450, up 20; and Fujian 2,340). Rapeseed supply is getting tightened as it is difficult for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time, and the weather speculation on U.S. soybean crop may make a comeback at any time; hence, short-term rapeseed meal prices may be buoyed to fluctuate to rebound moderately. But rapeseed meal demand is now severely influenced by its largely narrowed price spread with soybean meal. Besides, the impact by the African swine fever will hover for a while, and soybean import is huge in the third quarter. These will keep a lid on rapeseed meal price rises. Buyers can replenishment appropriately on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today with new product prices keeping firm and hoarded stockpiles having some negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 124,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 81,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 23,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price from foreign merchants remains unchanged today: it is 1,360 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,560 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. The consumption on fishmeal is limited by the demand from aquaculture and reducing breeding pig amount under the African swine fever. Meanwhile, with constant arrival of new fishmeal from Peru, the total inventory has climbed higher to 264,000 tonnes, with an increase of 103.52% from the corresponding period last year. Hence, fishmeal market is negative. But holders are struggling to reduce losses under price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices when operation rate keep at a low level amid no pressure from inventory; there are still some rigid demands in downstream; meals on DCE today go up with fluctuations, spot soybean meal up 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the overall demand is not good due to African swine fever and the narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed oil. Short-term cottonseed meal unlikely experiences a big rise. Buyers are suggested to replenish properly upon low price and be prudent if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
