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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 29/7/2019

2019-07-29 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,264  3,893  150 -779 3,826 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,218  3,893  150 -825 3,824 
Costal Shandong 5,400  2,780  3,222  3,893  150 -821 3,819 
Jiangsu 5,460  2,750  3,210  3,893  150 -833 3,805 
Guangdong 5,470  2,730  3,196  3,893  150 -847 3,802 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,264  3,854  150 -740 3,777 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,218  3,854  150 -786 3,774 
Costal Shandong 5,400  2,780  3,222  3,854  150 -782 3,770 
Jiangsu 5,460  2,750  3,210  3,854  150 -794 3,755 
Guangdong 5,470  2,730  3,196  3,854  150 -808 3,753 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,318  3,130  150  38  2,792 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,272  3,130  150  -8  2,790 
Costal Shandong 5,400  2,780  3,276  3,130  150  -4  2,785 
Jiangsu 5,460  2,750  3,265  3,130  150  -16  2,770 
Guangdong 5,470  2,730  3,251  3,130  150  -29  2,767 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,210  3,044  150  16  2,819 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,165  3,044  150  -29  2,817 
Costal Shandong 5,400  2,780  3,168  3,044  150  -26  2,813 
Jiangsu 5,460  2,750  3,155  3,044  150  -39  2,799 
Guangdong 5,470  2,730  3,141  3,044  150  -53  2,797 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,237  3,580  150  -493  3,464 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,192  3,580  150  -539  3,462 
Costal Shandong 5,400  2,780  3,195  3,580  150  -535  3,457 
Jiangsu 5,460  2,750  3,183  3,580  150  -547  3,443 
Guangdong 5,470  2,730  3,169  3,580  150  -561  3,441 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,520  2,990  3,275  3,400  160  -285  3,346 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,840  3,131  3,520  160  -549  3,526 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380  2,780  3,085  3,540  160  -615  3,549 
Boxing, Shandong 5,420  2,790  3,099  3,560  160  -621  3,566 

Remarks:
1. Domestic soybean cost: soybean purchasing price + freight to the factory (Heilongjiang)
2. Oil extraction rate at 16%, and meal at 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.