Today (Jul. 29th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from last Friday at 4150 yuan/tonne, and Myanmar soybean is at 4670 yuan/tonne, unchanged from last Friday. The insufficient quantity of imported and distributed soybean supports the prices. However, if the U.S.-China trade talks this week goes well, US soybeans imports later likely increase. Besides, Xinhua quote sources with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, that Millions of tonnes of American agricultural products have been shipped out to China, the latest progress in the purchase of U.S. agricultural products by Chinese enterprises. Add the off-season period of soybean demand and global ample supply, and the imported and distributed soybean is negative. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are partially up 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg with most purchase activities suspending, due to the declining supply of cottonseed, and a certain period before the marketing of new cottonseed. However, the market is curbed because the cottonseed trading is not much as oil mills are reluctant to purchase and some mills mainly use its own stock due to poor crush margin. Short-term price is likely to stay stable with fluctuation in narrowed range and buyers can make small replenishment upon low prices.

Summary: U.S. soybean rose last Friday on the restart of U.S.-China trade talks. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, meal futures extend losses on this news, but oil futures continue to go up due to the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil increase by 20-50 yuan/tonne in tepid trading with some low-level purchases. As soybean crush have been at a low level due to swelling soybean meal inventories, soybean oil stockpiles have declined by 1,4% to 1.44 mln tonnes this week. Meanwhile, palm oil has also decreased by 3.3% to 635,000 tonnes. Moreover, the stockpiling for packing oil will welcome the peak season, and the weather speculation on U.S. soybean may come back at any time. Therefore, oil market is buoyed to continue its upward trend. But the operation rate may grow as China has resumed U.S. soybean purchases, which may restrict the rebounds of oil spot prices. Generally speaking, oil market will maintain its strong trend with some fluctuations before the completion of the stockpiling for small packing oil in the run up for the festival, but buyers still need to avoid short-term fluctuations and corrections after constant price rises. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,400-5,560 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up by 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,400-5,410, Rizhao 5,430, Zhangjiagang 5,560, and Guangzhou 5,540). 

Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,430-4,450, up 30; Rizhao not offered yet; Zhangjiagang 4,380, up 50; Guangzhou 4,380, up 30; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil goes up today, of which it settles up 50-70 yuan at 6,950-7,060 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong 6,960, up 50; and Guangxi 7,060, up 60). Rapeseed is in a tight supply outlook before a thaw between China and Canada, for rapeseed and oil import is still blocked, coupled with the upcoming stockpiling for packing oil before the festival; thus, rapeseed oil market is buoyed. But rapeseed oil has increased by 4% to 500,000 tonnes last week as its demand is still subject to its huge price gap with soybean oil and palm oil that are in huge inventories. Besides, soybean oil may keep growing due to huge soybean import later. These will both keep a lid on the rapeseed oil market. Overall, short-term rapeseed oil will probably fluctuate to consolidate, and buyers can make replenishment in small batch on the dips and had better not chase up prices excessively. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 50-100 yuan/tonne. due to the low operation rate, high cottonseed price, and busy season for restocking of packing oils starts. Besides, today oils on DCE further rise on arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, and spot soybean oil and palm oil go up 20-50 yuan/tonne. However, cottonseed oil is weighted on by the limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oils, and high fundamental pressure in staple oil market. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to strongly fluctuate. Buyers with insufficient stock can replenish properly in small batches and be prudent if chasing high.