Soybean: The inventory climber a little higher further as the overall operation rate remains at a low level in spite of another pickup among oil mills. On the week as of July 26th, imported soybean inventory is 4,900,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 64,700 tonnes by 1.34% from 4,835,700 tonnes last week yet down by 23.15% from 6,377,200 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to increase further later. 

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: The inventory has continued to reduce this week, but it is just at a smaller pace due to growing operation rate and lower trading volume. As of this Friday, soybean meal has traded with a total of 596,000 tonnes, a weekly decline of 58.38% and a month-on-month decline of 19.98%. On the week as of July 26th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 826,600 tonnes, down 30,300 tonnes by 3.54% from 856,900 tonnes last week and down by 33.79% from 1,248,600 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.59 mln tonnes and 1.80 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks soybean meal inventory is predicted to slow down its reduction.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts continues to decrease this week. On the week as of July 26th, outstanding contracts in domestic main areas hold 2,952,100 tonnes unfinished, down 291,300 tonnes by 8.89% from 3,243,400 tonnes last week and markedly down by 44.24% from 5,295,100 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years