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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 30/7/2019

2019-07-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,288  3,922  150 -784 3,863 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,238  3,922  150 -834 3,856 
Costal Shandong 5,380  2,790  3,226  3,922  150 -846 3,861 
Jiangsu 5,480  2,770  3,230  3,922  150 -843 3,836 
Guangdong 5,500  2,750  3,218  3,922  150 -855 3,832 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,288  3,866  150 -728 3,792 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,238  3,866  150 -778 3,785 
Costal Shandong 5,380  2,790  3,226  3,866  150 -790 3,790 
Jiangsu 5,480  2,770  3,230  3,866  150 -787 3,766 
Guangdong 5,500  2,750  3,218  3,866  150 -799 3,761 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,341  3,138  150  53  2,803 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,292  3,138  150  4  2,795 
Costal Shandong 5,380  2,790  3,280  3,138  150  -8  2,800 
Jiangsu 5,480  2,770  3,284  3,138  150  -4  2,775 
Guangdong 5,500  2,750  3,273  3,138  150  -16  2,770 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,234  3,060  150  24  2,840 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,184  3,060  150  -26  2,833 
Costal Shandong 5,380  2,790  3,173  3,060  150  -38  2,837 
Jiangsu 5,480  2,770  3,175  3,060  150  -35  2,815 
Guangdong 5,500  2,750  3,163  3,060  150  -48  2,810 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,261  3,580  150  -469  3,464 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,211  3,580  150  -519  3,457 
Costal Shandong 5,380  2,790  3,199  3,580  150  -531  3,462 
Jiangsu 5,480  2,770  3,202  3,580  150  -528  3,438 
Guangdong 5,500  2,750  3,190  3,580  150  -540  3,434 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,520  3,020  3,299  3,400  160  -261  3,346 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,370  2,870  3,155  3,520  160  -525  3,526 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400  2,800  3,104  3,540  160  -596  3,545 
Boxing, Shandong 5,420  2,800  3,107  3,560  160  -613  3,566 
Remarks:
1. Domestic soybean cost: soybean purchasing price + freight to the factory (Heilongjiang)
2. Oil extraction rate at 16%, and meal at 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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