I.Soybean
Price: The insufficient quantity of imported and distributed soybean supports the prices. However, more US soybean will likely be imported when 4 cargoes of US soybean are bought Yihai, Sinograin, COFCO and so on; China will permit to import two batches of US soybean with additional tariffs exemption, totally 6,000,000 tonnes amid a better US-China trade relationship. Meanwhile, if the 12th round of trade talks next Tuesday and Wednesday in Shanghai goes well, there may be more US soybean purchase plan. Besides, traders' delivery during the off-season period is slow. Add that the ample supply of global soybean and China's market is curbed. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Bulk, Brazil
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import,Russia
|
4150
|
4150
|
0
|
Import,Myanmar
|
4570
|
4570
|
0
|
Crush: In spite of another pickup, the operation rate still remains low due to swelling soybean meal inventory in some mills this week (July 20th-26th). Soybean crush totals 1,567,600 tonnes (meal 1,238,404 tonnes and oil 297,844 tonnes), an increase of 62,000 tonnes by 4.11% from 1,505,600 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) is 43.88%, up 1.74 percentage points from 42.14% last week. As the operation rate will continue to recover in the next two weeks for slightly eased swelling inventories with quicker deliveries, soybean crush is predicted to return to around 1.59 mln tonnes next week and to around 1.80 mln tonnes the following week.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.74 mln tonnes in July at current utilization rate, below the 7.40 mln tonnes in June and 7.55 mln tonnes a year earlier.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 69,106,715 tonnes, down 3,530,833 tonnes by 4.86% from 72,637,548 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 45,955,315 tonnes, down 2,281,513 tonnes by 4.72% from 48,236,828 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory climber a little higher further as the overall operation rate remains at a low level in spite of another pickup among oil mills. On the week as of July 26th, imported soybean inventory is 4,900,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 64,700 tonnes by 1.34% from 4,835,700 tonnes last week yet down by 23.15% from 6,377,200 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to increase further later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 33 cargoes with 2.234 mln tonnes this week, a total of 115.7 cargoes with 7.412 mln tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 146 cargoes with 9.416 mln tonnes for July shipment, 9.1 mln tonnes for August, 9.2 mln tonnes for September, and 8.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (July 22-26, 2019), spot soybean meal prices fall back with fluctuations. As of this Friday, the price is 2730-2790 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-50 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
2,900
|
2,950
|
-50
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2,790
|
2,830
|
-40
|
Hebei
|
2,760
|
2,800
|
-40
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,780
|
2,860
|
-80
|
Henan
|
2,860
|
2,880
|
-20
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,760
|
2790-2800
|
‘-30-40
|
Jiangsu
|
2,740
|
2,750
|
-10
|
Zhejiang
|
2,750
|
2,770
|
-20
|
Shanghai
|
2,740
|
2,770
|
-30
|
Fujian
|
2,730
|
2,760
|
-30
|
Anhui
|
2,770
|
2,800
|
-30
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,730
|
2,790
|
-60
|
Guangxi
|
2,760
|
2,800
|
-40
|
National average
|
2,755
|
2,788
|
-33
|
Inventory: The inventory has continued to reduce this week, but it is just at a smaller pace due to growing operation rate and lower trading volume. As of this Friday, soybean meal has traded with a total of 596,000 tonnes, a weekly decline of 58.38% and a month-on-month decline of 19.98%. On the week as of July 26th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 826,600 tonnes, down 30,300 tonnes by 3.54% from 856,900 tonnes last week and down by 33.79% from 1,248,600 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.59 mln tonnes and 1.80 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks soybean meal inventory is predicted to slow down its reduction.
III.Soybean Oil
Price:This week (July 22-26, 2019), soybean oil continue to increase and the rising range is bigger. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5350-5520 yuan/tonne, and the rising range is 90-190 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5350-5360
|
5230-5240
|
120
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,370
|
5,280
|
90
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,520
|
5,380
|
140
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5450-5460
|
5,300
|
150-160
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,450
|
5,310
|
140
|
Inventory: Soybean oil inventory has decreased this week, especially in East China. On the week as of July 26th, the inventory has totaled 1,439,500 tonnes, down 20,000 tonnes by 1.37% from 1,459,500 tonnes last week, down 40,500 tonnes by 2.07% from 1,480,000 tonnes month-on-month, and down 130,500 tonnes by 8.31% from 1,570,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,297,200 tonnes.
