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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--31/7/2019

2019-07-31 www.cofeed.com
Today (Jul. 31st), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
 
Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4150 yuan/tonne, and Myanmar soybean is at 4670 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. The insufficient quantity of imported and distributed soybean supports the prices. However, if the trade talks goes well, US soybeans imports later likely increase. Add the off-season period of soybean demand and global ample supply and the imported and distributed soybean is negative. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are partially stable with most purchase activities suspending, due to the declining supply of cottonseed, and a certain period before the marketing of new cottonseed. However,  the market is curbed because the cottonseed trading is not much as oil mills are reluctant to purchase and some mills mainly use its own stock due to poor crush margin. Short-term price is likely to stay stable with fluctuation in narrowed range and buyers can make small replenishment upon low prices.

Oils: 

Summary: U.S. soybean snapped off gains to fall last night, for China and the United States were scarcely possible to draw up an agreement during the ongoing trade talks for their existing big divergences, especially as after President Donald Trump tweeted to censure that China had not bought more U.S. agricultural products as supposed, and oil futures fluctuate to inch down on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil steadily decline by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. China bought at least two cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and two cargoes from U.S. PNW, which will help amply soybean supply. And mills will pick up their operation rate with the consumption of soybean meal stockpiles. Besides, traders have closed their positions after taking profit in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Therefore, oil market continues to fluctuate o adjust today. However, the market is now in the peak season for the stockpiling of packing oil, so that soybean oil and palm oil inventories have both dropped under quicker deliveries. As oil market has been shored up strongly, there will be little room for price declines. The overall market is predicted to stay strong with fluctuations and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to see if there is any need to make proper replenishment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,410-5,580 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, partially down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,410-5,420, Rizhao 5,430, Zhangjiagang 5,580, and Guangzhou 5,550-5,560). 

Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,380-4,470 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial loss of 10 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,440-4,450, flat; Rizhao 4,480; Zhangjiagang 4,400, flat; Guangzhou 4,380, down 10; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan at 6,880-7,000 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong 6,880, down 30; and Guangxi 7,000, down 20). The demand for rapeseed oil is curbed by its widened price difference with soybean oil and palm oil. Moreover, soybean crush may climb higher in coming two weeks with lower soybean meal inventory pressure and huge soybean import as China has resumed U.S. soybean purchases. However, rapeseed supply may get tightened due to the unresolved issues between Beijing and Ottawas, and the peak season for the stockpiling in the run up for the Mid-autumn Festival and the National Day is underway; hence, rapeseed oil prices will probably have limited declines. The overall market will stay at the high level, and buyers can maintain light stockpiles for the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices
due to the low operation rate, high cottonseed price ,and the start for the season of packing-oil stockpiling. However, cottonseed oil is weighted on by the limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oils, and high fundamental pressure in staple oil market. Besides, as Trump accused China of not following through on promises to buy more U.S. agricultural products in tweets and the gap between China and US is still wide, the probability of agreement made in the ongoing trade talks is small. And today soybean oil on DCE falls with fluctuations and spot soybean oil is stable with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to move sideways. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sidelines or make a small replenishment upon low price, and maintain cautious if chasing high.

(USD $1=CNY 6.87)