Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 1/8/2019

2019-08-01 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,264	3,814	150	-700	3,726
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,218	3,814	150	-746	3,724
Costal Shandong	5,330	2,780	3,209	3,814	150	-755	3,736
Jiangsu	5,440	2,750	3,206	3,814	150	-758	3,709
Guangdong	5,470	2,730	3,196	3,814	150	-768	3,702

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,264	3,797	150	-683	3,705
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,218	3,797	150	-729	3,702
Costal Shandong	5,330	2,780	3,209	3,797	150	-738	3,714
Jiangsu	5,440	2,750	3,206	3,797	150	-741	3,688
Guangdong	5,470	2,730	3,196	3,797	150	-751	3,681

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,318	3,119	150	49	2,778
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,272	3,119	150	3	2,776
Costal Shandong	5,330	2,780	3,262	3,119	150	-7	2,789
Jiangsu	5,440	2,750	3,261	3,119	150	-9	2,761
Guangdong	5,470	2,730	3,251	3,119	150	-18	2,753

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,210	3,053	150	7	2,831
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,165	3,053	150	-38	2,829
Costal Shandong	5,330	2,780	3,156	3,053	150	-47	2,840
Jiangsu	5,440	2,750	3,152	3,053	150	-51	2,815
Guangdong	5,470	2,730	3,141	3,053	150	-62	2,808

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,237	3,580	150	-493	3,464
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,192	3,580	150	-539	3,462
Costal Shandong	5,330	2,780	3,182	3,580	150	-548	3,473
Jiangsu	5,440	2,750	3,179	3,580	150	-551	3,448
Guangdong	5,470	2,730	3,169	3,580	150	-561	3,441

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	5,520	2,990	3,275	3,400	160	-285	3,346
Dalian, Liaoning	5,370	2,840	3,131	3,520	160	-549	3,526
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,380	2,780	3,085	3,540	160	-615	3,549
Boxing, Shandong	5,370	2,780	3,083	3,560	160	-637	3,576
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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