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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 2/8/2019

2019-08-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,319  3,771  150 -602 3,653 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,260  3,771  150 -662 3,657 
Costal Shandong 5,370  2,810  3,240  3,771  150 -681 3,672 
Jiangsu 5,490  2,790  3,247  3,771  150 -674 3,643 
Guangdong 5,500  2,800  3,257  3,771  150 -664 3,641 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,319  3,760  150 -591 3,639 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,260  3,760  150 -651 3,643 
Costal Shandong 5,370  2,810  3,240  3,760  150 -670 3,658 
Jiangsu 5,490  2,790  3,247  3,760  150 -663 3,629 
Guangdong 5,500  2,800  3,257  3,760  150 -653 3,627 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,373  3,087  150  136  2,718 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,314  3,087  150  77  2,723 
Costal Shandong 5,370  2,810  3,294  3,087  150  57  2,738 
Jiangsu 5,490  2,790  3,302  3,087  150  65  2,708 
Guangdong 5,500  2,800  3,312  3,087  150  75  2,705 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,264  3,020  150  94  2,771 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,205  3,020  150  35  2,775 
Costal Shandong 5,370  2,810  3,187  3,020  150  17  2,789 
Jiangsu 5,490  2,790  3,192  3,020  150  22  2,762 
Guangdong 5,500  2,800  3,202  3,020  150  32  2,759 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,291  3,580  150  -439  3,445 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,232  3,580  150  -498  3,450 
Costal Shandong 5,370  2,810  3,213  3,580  150  -517  3,464 
Jiangsu 5,490  2,790  3,220  3,580  150  -510  3,436 
Guangdong 5,500  2,800  3,230  3,580  150  -501  3,434 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,600  3,040  3,328  3,400  160  -232  3,330 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,450  2,890  3,184  3,520  160  -496  3,510 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,430  2,820  3,125  3,540  160  -575  3,539 
Boxing, Shandong 5,370  2,820  3,115  3,560  160  -605  3,576 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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