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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/8/2019

2019-08-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,356  3,833  150 -627 3,714 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,289  3,833  150 -694 3,719 
Costal Shandong 5,490  2,830  3,279  3,833  150 -704 3,721 
Jiangsu 5,630  2,820  3,298  3,833  150 -686 3,688 
Guangdong 5,640  2,820  3,299  3,833  150 -684 3,685 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,356  3,767  150 -561 3,631 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,289  3,767  150 -628 3,635 
Costal Shandong 5,490  2,830  3,279  3,767  150 -638 3,638 
Jiangsu 5,630  2,820  3,298  3,767  150 -620 3,604 
Guangdong 5,640  2,820  3,299  3,767  150 -618 3,602 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,411  3,216  150  45  2,863 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,344  3,216  150  -22  2,868 
Costal Shandong 5,490  2,830  3,334  3,216  150  -32  2,871 
Jiangsu 5,630  2,820  3,354  3,216  150  -12  2,835 
Guangdong 5,640  2,820  3,356  3,216  150  -10  2,833 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,300  3,103  150  47  2,860 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,234  3,103  150  -19  2,865 
Costal Shandong 5,490  2,830  3,224  3,103  150  -29  2,867 
Jiangsu 5,630  2,820  3,241  3,103  150  -12  2,835 
Guangdong 5,640  2,820  3,243  3,103  150  -10  2,833 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,328  3,600  150  -422  3,454 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,261  3,600  150  -489  3,459 
Costal Shandong 5,490  2,830  3,251  3,600  150  -499  3,461 
Jiangsu 5,630  2,820  3,269  3,600  150  -481  3,428 
Guangdong 5,640  2,820  3,271  3,600  150  -479  3,426 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,670  3,070  3,363  3,400  160  -197  3,316 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,520  2,920  3,219  3,520  160  -461  3,496 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500  2,840  3,152  3,540  160  -548  3,525 
Boxing, Shandong 5,500  2,850  3,160  3,560  160  -560  3,550 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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