Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/8/2019

2019-08-05 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,356	3,833	150	-627	3,714
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,289	3,833	150	-694	3,719
Costal Shandong	5,490	2,830	3,279	3,833	150	-704	3,721
Jiangsu	5,630	2,820	3,298	3,833	150	-686	3,688
Guangdong	5,640	2,820	3,299	3,833	150	-684	3,685

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,356	3,767	150	-561	3,631
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,289	3,767	150	-628	3,635
Costal Shandong	5,490	2,830	3,279	3,767	150	-638	3,638
Jiangsu	5,630	2,820	3,298	3,767	150	-620	3,604
Guangdong	5,640	2,820	3,299	3,767	150	-618	3,602

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,411	3,216	150	45	2,863
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,344	3,216	150	-22	2,868
Costal Shandong	5,490	2,830	3,334	3,216	150	-32	2,871
Jiangsu	5,630	2,820	3,354	3,216	150	-12	2,835
Guangdong	5,640	2,820	3,356	3,216	150	-10	2,833

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,300	3,103	150	47	2,860
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,234	3,103	150	-19	2,865
Costal Shandong	5,490	2,830	3,224	3,103	150	-29	2,867
Jiangsu	5,630	2,820	3,241	3,103	150	-12	2,835
Guangdong	5,640	2,820	3,243	3,103	150	-10	2,833

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,328	3,600	150	-422	3,454
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,261	3,600	150	-489	3,459
Costal Shandong	5,490	2,830	3,251	3,600	150	-499	3,461
Jiangsu	5,630	2,820	3,269	3,600	150	-481	3,428
Guangdong	5,640	2,820	3,271	3,600	150	-479	3,426

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	5,670	3,070	3,363	3,400	160	-197	3,316
Dalian, Liaoning	5,520	2,920	3,219	3,520	160	-461	3,496
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,500	2,840	3,152	3,540	160	-548	3,525
Boxing, Shandong	5,500	2,850	3,160	3,560	160	-560	3,550
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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