Soybean: Soybean inventory continues to increase this week as its crush falls again to 1.49 mln tonnes due to the swollen meal inventory and the emergency shut down under the typhoon Wipha in Guangdong. On the week as of August 2nd, imported soybean inventory is 5,544,500 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 644,100 tonnes by 13.14% from 4,900,400 tonnes last week yet down by 16.75% from 6,660,300 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of around 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to increase further later. 

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal inventory climbs higher this week, which is contributed to slower deliveries in South China due to the typhoon. On the week as of August 2nd, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 842,200 tonnes, up 15,600 tonnes by 1.89% from 826,600 tonnes last week yet down by 30.76% from 1,216,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As the crush will return to around 1.60 mln tonnes and 1.80 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, soybean meal inventory is predicted to increase fractionally.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts increases this week due to the amount accumulated in July and new contracts in August. On the week as of August 2nd, outstanding contracts in domestic main areas hold 4,178,900 tonnes unfinished, up 1,226,800 tonnes by 41.56% from 2,952,100 tonnes last week yet markedly down by 35.57% from 6,486,000 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years