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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/8/2019

2019-08-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,383  3,850  150 -617 3,731 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,330  3,850  150 -670 3,728 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,860  3,312  3,850  150 -688 3,731 
Jiangsu 5,650  2,850  3,325  3,850  150 -675 3,704 
Guangdong 5,700  2,850  3,335  3,850  150 -666 3,692 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,383  3,758  150 -525 3,614 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,330  3,758  150 -578 3,612 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,860  3,312  3,758  150 -596 3,614 
Jiangsu 5,650  2,850  3,325  3,758  150 -583 3,588 
Guangdong 5,700  2,850  3,335  3,758  150 -574 3,576 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,439  3,232  150  57  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,385  3,232  150  3  2,876 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,860  3,367  3,232  150  -15  2,878 
Jiangsu 5,650  2,850  3,382  3,232  150  -1  2,851 
Guangdong 5,700  2,850  3,392  3,232  150  10  2,838 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,328  3,138  150  40  2,900 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,274  3,138  150  -14  2,897 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,860  3,257  3,138  150  -31  2,900 
Jiangsu 5,650  2,850  3,269  3,138  150  -20  2,875 
Guangdong 5,700  2,850  3,278  3,138  150  -11  2,863 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,355  3,600  150  -395  3,449 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,302  3,600  150  -448  3,447 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,860  3,284  3,600  150  -466  3,449 
Jiangsu 5,650  2,850  3,297  3,600  150  -453  3,424 
Guangdong 5,700  2,850  3,306  3,600  150  -444  3,412 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,690  3,100  3,390  3,400  160  -170  3,312 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540  2,950  3,246  3,520  160  -434  3,492 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,192  3,540  160  -508  3,515 
Boxing, Shandong 5,590  2,900  3,214  3,560  160  -506  3,532 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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