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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 7/8/2019

2019-08-07 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,387  3,877  150 -640 3,760 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,330  3,877  150 -697 3,763 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,870  3,320  3,877  150 -707 3,765 
Jiangsu 5,660  2,850  3,327  3,877  150 -700 3,736 
Guangdong 5,700  2,840  3,327  3,877  150 -700 3,727 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,387  3,759  150 -522 3,611 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,330  3,759  150 -579 3,613 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,870  3,320  3,759  150 -589 3,616 
Jiangsu 5,660  2,850  3,327  3,759  150 -582 3,587 
Guangdong 5,700  2,840  3,327  3,759  150 -582 3,577 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,443  3,249  150  44  2,895 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,385  3,249  150  -14  2,897 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,870  3,375  3,249  150  -24  2,900 
Jiangsu 5,660  2,850  3,384  3,249  150  -16  2,870 
Guangdong 5,700  2,840  3,384  3,249  150  -15  2,859 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,331  3,121  150  60  2,874 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,274  3,121  150  3  2,876 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,870  3,265  3,121  150  -7  2,878 
Jiangsu 5,660  2,850  3,270  3,121  150  -1  2,851 
Guangdong 5,700  2,840  3,270  3,121  150  -1  2,842 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,359  3,600  150  -391  3,445 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,302  3,600  150  -448  3,447 
Costal Shandong 5,540  2,870  3,292  3,600  150  -458  3,449 
Jiangsu 5,660  2,850  3,299  3,600  150  -451  3,421 
Guangdong 5,700  2,840  3,298  3,600  150  -452  3,412 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,710  3,100  3,394  3,400  160  -166  3,308 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,560  2,950  3,250  3,520  160  -430  3,488 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550  2,880  3,192  3,540  160  -508  3,515 
Boxing, Shandong 5,560  2,900  3,210  3,560  160  -510  3,538 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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