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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 8/8/2019

2019-08-08 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,414  3,876  150 -613 3,725 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,365  3,876  150 -662 3,737 
Costal Shandong 5,620  2,880  3,343  3,876  150 -683 3,745 
Jiangsu 5,800  2,850  3,354  3,876  150 -673 3,701 
Guangdong 5,800  2,840  3,346  3,876  150 -680 3,701 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,414  3,758  150 -495 3,576 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,365  3,758  150 -544 3,588 
Costal Shandong 5,620  2,880  3,343  3,758  150 -565 3,595 
Jiangsu 5,800  2,850  3,354  3,758  150 -555 3,552 
Guangdong 5,800  2,840  3,346  3,758  150 -562 3,552 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,471  3,251  150  70  2,862 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,421  3,251  150  20  2,875 
Costal Shandong 5,620  2,880  3,399  3,251  150  -2  2,882 
Jiangsu 5,800  2,850  3,412  3,251  150  11  2,837 
Guangdong 5,800  2,840  3,404  3,251  150  3  2,837 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,357  3,123  150  84  2,844 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,308  3,123  150  35  2,856 
Costal Shandong 5,620  2,880  3,287  3,123  150  14  2,863 
Jiangsu 5,800  2,850  3,296  3,123  150  23  2,822 
Guangdong 5,800  2,840  3,288  3,123  150  15  2,822 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,385  3,600  150  -365  3,412 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,336  3,600  150  -414  3,424 
Costal Shandong 5,620  2,880  3,315  3,600  150  -435  3,431 
Jiangsu 5,800  2,850  3,325  3,600  150  -426  3,389 
Guangdong 5,800  2,840  3,317  3,600  150  -433  3,389 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,850  3,100  3,416  3,400  160  -144  3,280 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700  2,950  3,272  3,520  160  -408  3,460 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,900  3,224  3,540  160  -476  3,495 
Boxing, Shandong 5,670  2,900  3,227  3,560  160  -493  3,516 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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