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Cofeed: China Soybean Oil Supply and Demand Estimates (Aug, 2019)

2019-08-09 www.cofeed.com

China Soybean Oil Supply & Demand Estimates Yearly (crop year: Oct.-Sept, unit: 0’000 tonnes.)
Item/Year 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Est. Est. Est. Est. July Proj. Aug Proj. July Proj. Aug Proj.
Beginning Stocks 131 97 118 148 171 171 140 135
Domestic Production 1394 1476 1577 1614 1564 1547 1580 1570
Imports 74 53 58 48 60 60 80 70
Total Supply 1599 1626 1753 1810 1795 1778 1800 1775
 
Domestic Consumption 1492 1500 1594 1627 1643 1631 1658 1640
food consumption 1348 1356 1452 1477 1493 1481 1508 1490
Other Consumption 144 144 142 150 150 150 150 150
Yearly Exports 10 8 11 12 12 12 12 12
Total Use 1502 1508 1605 1639 1655 1643 1670 1652
 
Ending Stocks 97 118 148 171 140 135 130 123
Stock-to-use Ratio 6.46% 7.82% 9.22% 10.43% 8.46% 8.22% 7.78% 7.45%

 

China Soybean Oil Supply & Demand Estimates Monthly (unit: 0’000 tonnes)
Year Est. Beginning Stocks Domestic Production Imports Total Supply Domestic Consumption Of which Of which Exports Total Use Ending Stocks
Food Consumption Other Consumption
2016 Oct 118 121 4 243 129 117 12 1 130 113
Nov 113 136 8 257 159 147 12 1 160 97
Dec 97 145 3 245 155 143 12 1 156 89
2017 Jan 89 120 1 210 112 101 11 1 113 97
Feb 97 101 3 201 89 78 11 1 90 111
Mar 111 118 1 230 113 101 12 1 114 116
Apr 116 128 5 249 133 121 12 1 134 115
May 115 142 2 259 135 123 12 1 136 123
Jun 123 136 14 273 147 135 12 1 148 125
Jul 125 143 7 276 134 122 12 1 135 141
Aug 141 141 7 289 148 136 12 0 148 141
Sept 141 148 3 292 143 131 12 1 144 148
Oct 148 136 6 290 130 118 12 1 131 159
Nov 159 145 2 306 137 125 12 1 138 168
Dec 168 156 3 327 161 149 12 1 162 165
2018 Jan 165 149 2 316 166 154 12 1 167 149
Feb 149 77 1 227 85 73 12 1 86 141
Mar 141 132 1 274 135 123 12 1 136 138
Apr 138 129 1 268 137 125 12 1 138 130
May 130 127 6 263 128 115 13 1 129 134
Jun 134 137 7 278 126 113 13 1 127 151
Jul 151 135 3 289 129 116 13 1 130 159
Aug 159 148 8 315 151 138 13 1 152 163
Sept 163 143 8 314 142 128 14 1 143 171
Oct 171 148 7 326 140 128 12 1 141 185
Nov 185 129 6 320 140 128 12 1 141 179
Dec 179 137 6 322 161 149 12 1 162 160
2019 Jan 160 128 7 295 160 148 12 1 161 134
Feb 134 67 7 208 73 61 12 1 74 134
Mar 134 127 1 262 127 115 12 1 128 134
Apr 134 129 1 264 124 112 12 1 125 139
May 139 141 5 285 143 130 13 1 144 141
Jun 141 133 6 280 132 119 13 1 133 147
Jul 147 124 8 279 139 126 13 1 140 139
Aug 139 141 3 283 151 138 13 1 152 131
Sept 131 143 3 277 141 127 14 1 142 135