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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/8/2019

2019-08-09 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,456  3,941  150 -635 3,774 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,384  3,941  150 -708 3,796 
Costal Shandong 5,710  2,910  3,384  3,941  150 -707 3,805 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,880  3,406  3,941  150 -685 3,747 
Guangdong 5,940  2,860  3,388  3,941  150 -703 3,750 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,456  3,823  150 -517 3,625 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,384  3,823  150 -590 3,646 
Costal Shandong 5,710  2,910  3,384  3,823  150 -589 3,656 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,880  3,406  3,823  150 -567 3,598 
Guangdong 5,940  2,860  3,388  3,823  150 -585 3,601 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,514  3,303  150  61  2,892 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,441  3,303  150  -12  2,915 
Costal Shandong 5,710  2,910  3,441  3,303  150  -12  2,925 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,880  3,465  3,303  150  12  2,865 
Guangdong 5,940  2,860  3,447  3,303  150  -6  2,867 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,398  3,175  150  73  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,326  3,175  150  1  2,899 
Costal Shandong 5,710  2,910  3,327  3,175  150  2  2,908 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,880  3,346  3,175  150  21  2,853 
Guangdong 5,940  2,860  3,329  3,175  150  4  2,855 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,427  3,600  150  -323  3,379 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,355  3,600  150  -395  3,400 
Costal Shandong 5,710  2,910  3,355  3,600  150  -395  3,410 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,880  3,376  3,600  150  -374  3,353 
Guangdong 5,940  2,860  3,358  3,600  150  -392  3,356 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,990  3,120  3,454  3,400  160  -106  3,252 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840  2,970  3,310  3,520  160  -370  3,432 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,900  3,240  3,540  160  -460  3,475 
Boxing, Shandong 5,780  2,920  3,261  3,560  160  -459  3,494 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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