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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/8/2019

2019-08-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,474  3,981  150 -657 3,781 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,441  3,981  150 -690 3,803 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,890  3,416  3,981  150 -716 3,796 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,870  3,436  3,981  150 -695 3,750 
Guangdong 6,100  2,850  3,411  3,981  150 -721 3,762 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,474  3,888  150 -564 3,664 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,441  3,888  150 -597 3,685 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,890  3,416  3,888  150 -623 3,678 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,870  3,436  3,888  150 -602 3,632 
Guangdong 6,100  2,850  3,411  3,888  150 -628 3,644 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,535  3,349  150  36  2,905 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,501  3,349  150  2  2,928 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,890  3,475  3,349  150  -24  2,920 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,870  3,497  3,349  150  -2  2,872 
Guangdong 6,100  2,850  3,472  3,349  150  -28  2,885 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,414  3,227  150  37  2,903 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,382  3,227  150  5  2,924 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,890  3,356  3,227  150  -21  2,917 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,870  3,374  3,227  150  -3  2,873 
Guangdong 6,100  2,850  3,350  3,227  150  -28  2,885 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,444  3,600  150  -306  3,337 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,412  3,600  150  -338  3,358 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,890  3,386  3,600  150  -364  3,351 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,870  3,405  3,600  150  -345  3,307 
Guangdong 6,100  2,850  3,380  3,600  150  -370  3,318 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,170  3,100  3,467  3,400  160  -93  3,216 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  2,950  3,323  3,520  160  -357  3,396 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,293  3,540  160  -407  3,439 
Boxing, Shandong 5,950  2,910  3,280  3,560  160  -440  3,460 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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