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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--12/8/2019

2019-08-12 www.cofeed.com
Today (Aug. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures extended gains last Friday night on technical buying and active short covering on worry over dry weather condition, but meal futures nudge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal mostly go lower by 10-20 yuan/tonne while Yihai Group offers higher by 10 yuan from last Friday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,810-2,910 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,910, Shandong 2,850-2,880, Jiangsu 2,850-2,870, Dongguan 2,850-2,880, Guangxi 2,860-2,880 and Fujian 2,820-2,870). Mills are picking up their operation rates with huge soybean arrivals at ports. The end consumption on meals is slow due to the rampant African swine fever (ASF), which is reported as most severe in Sichuan, Hubei and Hunan, and soybean meal market is also tepid. Subject to the typhoon Lekima, two mills in Panjin and some crush lines in Qingdao halted production, and some other mills also suspended loading and shipment. Soybean meal prices are thus curbed. But soybean meal prices still have support from higher premiums in South American soybeans and higher soybean import cost, as well as worries over trade frictions. Overall, short-term soybean meal market may follow futures to maintain strong with some fluctuations, and buyers can stay on the sidelines or take a hand-to-mouth buying. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down10-20 yuan at 2,440-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,440, down 30; and Fujian 2,450, down 20). Rapeseed meal inventory rose by 14.7% weekly to 43,000 tonnes last week. Its share in feed has been substantially supplanted by soybean meal due to their largely narrowed price gap. Buyers now remain cautious on account of a significant rise in import cost, huge soybean arrivals at ports, and the overall dismal demand for meals under the ASF. The main support for rapeseed meal prices is the tight supply outlook of rapeseed amid pending issues between Beijing and Ottawa. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal market may turn stronger in narrow fluctuations, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price stays stable today with huge negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,300-10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-11,100 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 131,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 83,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 21,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Foreign merchants have quoted steadily today: it is 1,320 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,520 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal consumption is slow due to tepid demand from aquaculture and smaller hog herd under the ASF. Meanwhile, fishmeal inventory keeps mounting higher at port with ongoing arrivals from Peru. Holders are under sales pressure so that domestic fishmeal market is restricted. But the market is receiving support from price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to post slight declines in the short run.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 50-80 yuan/tonne, when operation rate keep at a low level amid a low level of inventory; there are still some rigid demands in downstream. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever especially in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, with the number of China's live hogs in July down 10%  month on month, according to our investigation. Moreover, the narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal curbs cottonseed meal market as well. Besides, today meals on DCE fall back marginally, and spot soybean meal mostly see a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate greatly. Buyers had better maintain proper stock level upon low price, and not chase high.

(USD $1=CNY 7.02)