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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 13/8/2019

2019-08-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,520  3,936  150 -566 3,736 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,463  3,936  150 -623 3,729 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,920  3,451  3,936  150 -635 3,724 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,940  3,482  3,936  150 -604 3,705 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  3,936  150 -636 3,705 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,520  3,843  150 -473 3,619 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,463  3,843  150 -530 3,611 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,920  3,451  3,843  150 -542 3,607 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,940  3,482  3,843  150 -511 3,587 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  3,843  150 -543 3,587 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,580  3,318  150  112  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,523  3,318  150  55  2,871 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,920  3,511  3,318  150  43  2,866 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,940  3,543  3,318  150  75  2,846 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,511  3,318  150  43  2,846 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,460  3,192  150  118  2,870 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,403  3,192  150  61  2,863 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,920  3,390  3,192  150  48  2,859 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,940  3,421  3,192  150  79  2,841 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,389  3,192  150  47  2,841 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,490  3,600  150  -260  3,349 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,433  3,600  150  -317  3,342 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,920  3,421  3,600  150  -330  3,337 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,940  3,451  3,600  150  -299  3,318 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,420  3,600  150  -331  3,318 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,120  3,170  3,515  3,400  160  -45  3,226 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,020  3,371  3,520  160  -309  3,406 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,940  3,312  3,540  160  -388  3,425 
Boxing, Shandong 5,970  2,950  3,315  3,560  160  -405  3,456 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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