Price: The imported soybean supply in Tianjing port is not many and China said it would temporarily not rule out the possibility of levying additional tariffs on imported U.S. farm produce with deals made after Aug. 3, and related Chinese companies have halted purchases of U.S. farm produce, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Besides, the US soybean import is restricted by  the escalation of U.S.-China trade conflicts as US declares China a currency manipulator according to Bloomberg. All these are favorable for imported and distributed soybean market. However, the China's market is curb when 4431.677 tonnes of soybean imports from Russia are declared in Nantong Customs; the traders' delivery pace is slow during the off-season period; the soybean supply globally is huge. Short-term prices likely maintain stable. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.

Crush: As the operation rate has risen on better crush margins, soybean crush this week totals 1,657,600 tonnes (meal 1,309,504 tonnes and oil 314,944 tonnes), an increase of 165,000 tonnes by 11.05% from 1,492,600 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 46.39%, up 4.61 percentage points from 41.78% last week. Amid further pickups in operation rate, soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 1.70 mln tonnes next week and to around 1.71 mln tonnes the following week.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 72,256,915 tonnes in the crushing year of 2018/19 (from October, 2018), down 3,858,083 tonnes by 5.06% from 76,114,998 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 49,105,515 tonnes, down 2,608,763 tonnes by 5.04% from 51,714,278 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

 

Inventory: The inventory makes a turn to decrease this week as its crush goes up to 1.65 mln tonnes. On the week as of August 9th, imported soybean inventory is 5,497,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 47,300 tonnes by 0.93% from 5,544,500 tonnes last week and down by 21.33% from 6,988,500 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to increase later. 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 26 cargoes with 1.675 mln tonnes this week, a total of 34 cargoes with 2.179 mln tonnes for August so far. The import is predicted to be 141 cargoes with 9.1 mln tonnes for August, 9.0 mln tonnes for September, 8.3 mln tonnes for October, and 7.50 mln tonnes for November. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Aug. 5-Aug. 9, 2019), spot soybean meal prices further rise. As of this Friday, the price is 2830-2900 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 60-120 yuan/tonne from last week.

Inventory: The inventory continues to climb higher this week as its output grows with soybean crush. On the week as of August 9th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 859,000 tonnes, up 16,800 tonnes by 1.99% from 842,200 tonnes last week yet down by 25.93% from 1,158,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As the crush will return to around 1.70 mln tonnes and 1.71 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, soybean meal inventory is predicted to increase fractionally.

Price: This week (Aug. 5-Aug. 9, 2019), soybean oil rises for five consecutive weeks. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5880-6080 yuan/tonne, up 380-510 yuan/tonne.

Inventory: The market is now stocking up packing oil in full swing, so soybean oil inventory continues to drops amid a fair delivery pace, yet at a dramatically smaller pace. On the week as of August 9th, the inventory has totaled 1,376,400 tonnes, down 11,800 tonnes by 0.85% from 1,388,200 tonnes last week, down 53,600 tonnes by 3.75% from 1,430,000 tonnes last month, and down 217,100 tonnes by 13.62% from 1,593,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,310,200 tonnes.