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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 14/8/2019

2019-08-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,514  3,914  150 -550 3,716 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,441  3,914  150 -623 3,718 
Costal Shandong 5,980  2,910  3,435  3,914  150 -629 3,706 
Jiangsu 6,050  2,920  3,456  3,914  150 -608 3,689 
Guangdong 6,060  2,850  3,403  3,914  150 -661 3,687 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,514  3,834  150 -470 3,614 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,441  3,834  150 -543 3,617 
Costal Shandong 5,980  2,910  3,435  3,834  150 -549 3,605 
Jiangsu 6,050  2,920  3,456  3,834  150 -528 3,588 
Guangdong 6,060  2,850  3,403  3,834  150 -581 3,586 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,574  3,299  150  125  2,862 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,501  3,299  150  52  2,865 
Costal Shandong 5,980  2,910  3,495  3,299  150  46  2,852 
Jiangsu 6,050  2,920  3,517  3,299  150  68  2,834 
Guangdong 6,060  2,850  3,464  3,299  150  15  2,832 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,455  3,185  150  120  2,868 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,382  3,185  150  47  2,870 
Costal Shandong 5,980  2,910  3,375  3,185  150  40  2,859 
Jiangsu 6,050  2,920  3,396  3,185  150  61  2,843 
Guangdong 6,060  2,850  3,342  3,185  150  7  2,841 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,485  3,600  150  -265  3,356 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,412  3,600  150  -338  3,358 
Costal Shandong 5,980  2,910  3,405  3,600  150  -345  3,346 
Jiangsu 6,050  2,920  3,426  3,600  150  -324  3,330 
Guangdong 6,060  2,850  3,373  3,600  150  -377  3,328 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,090  3,170  3,510  3,400  160  -50  3,232 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,020  3,366  3,520  160  -314  3,412 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,930  3,293  3,540  160  -407  3,439 
Boxing, Shandong 5,930  2,940  3,301  3,560  160  -419  3,464 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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