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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 15/8/2019

2019-08-15 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,512  3,877  150 -515 3,662 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,439  3,877  150 -588 3,664 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,900  3,423  3,877  150 -604 3,664 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,880  3,434  3,877  150 -593 3,630 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,403  3,877  150 -624 3,630 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,512  3,799  150 -437 3,563 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,439  3,799  150 -510 3,565 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,900  3,423  3,799  150 -526 3,565 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,880  3,434  3,799  150 -515 3,532 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,403  3,799  150 -546 3,532 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,572  3,290  150  132  2,843 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,499  3,290  150  59  2,846 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,900  3,483  3,290  150  43  2,846 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,880  3,495  3,290  150  55  2,810 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,464  3,290  150  24  2,810 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,453  3,178  150  125  2,852 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,380  3,178  150  52  2,855 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,900  3,364  3,178  150  36  2,855 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,880  3,373  3,178  150  45  2,823 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,342  3,178  150  14  2,823 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,482  3,600  150  -268  3,349 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,409  3,600  150  -341  3,351 
Costal Shandong 5,960  2,900  3,394  3,600  150  -356  3,351 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,880  3,404  3,600  150  -346  3,318 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,372  3,600  150  -378  3,318 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,120  3,160  3,507  3,400  160  -53  3,226 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,010  3,363  3,520  160  -317  3,406 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,960  2,920  3,290  3,540  160  -410  3,433 
Boxing, Shandong 5,990  2,930  3,302  3,560  160  -418  3,452 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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