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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 16/8/2019

2019-08-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,486  3,855  150 -519 3,617 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,451  3,855  150 -554 3,622 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,900  3,431  3,855  150 -574 3,627 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,870  3,442  3,855  150 -564 3,583 
Guangdong 6,140  2,840  3,410  3,855  150 -595 3,593 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,486  3,777  150 -441 3,518 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,451  3,777  150 -476 3,523 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,900  3,431  3,777  150 -496 3,528 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,870  3,442  3,777  150 -486 3,485 
Guangdong 6,140  2,840  3,410  3,777  150 -517 3,494 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,546  3,296  150  100  2,833 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,511  3,296  150  65  2,838 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,900  3,491  3,296  150  45  2,843 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,870  3,503  3,296  150  57  2,797 
Guangdong 6,140  2,840  3,472  3,296  150  26  2,808 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,426  3,178  150  98  2,836 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,390  3,178  150  62  2,841 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,900  3,371  3,178  150  43  2,846 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,870  3,380  3,178  150  52  2,805 
Guangdong 6,140  2,840  3,349  3,178  150  21  2,814 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,456  3,600  150  -294  3,332 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,421  3,600  150  -330  3,337 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,900  3,401  3,600  150  -349  3,342 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,870  3,411  3,600  150  -339  3,300 
Guangdong 6,140  2,840  3,380  3,600  150  -371  3,309 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,190  3,110  3,478  3,400  160  -82  3,212 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,040  2,960  3,334  3,520  160  -346  3,392 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  2,920  3,299  3,540  160  -401  3,421 
Boxing, Shandong 6,040  2,900  3,286  3,560  160  -434  3,442 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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