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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 19/8/2019

2019-08-19 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,484  3,885  150 -551 3,657 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,459  3,885  150 -576 3,669 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,890  3,435  3,885  150 -601 3,650 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,870  3,438  3,885  150 -597 3,626 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,403  3,885  150 -632 3,641 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,484  3,806  150 -472 3,557 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,459  3,806  150 -497 3,569 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,890  3,435  3,806  150 -522 3,550 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,870  3,438  3,806  150 -518 3,526 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,403  3,806  150 -553 3,541 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,544  3,321  150  73  2,867 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,519  3,321  150  48  2,880 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,890  3,495  3,321  150  24  2,859 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,870  3,499  3,321  150  28  2,834 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,464  3,321  150  -7  2,849 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,424  3,202  150  72  2,869 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,399  3,202  150  47  2,881 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,890  3,374  3,202  150  22  2,862 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,870  3,376  3,202  150  24  2,839 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,342  3,202  150  -10  2,853 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,454  3,600  150  -296  3,335 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,429  3,600  150  -321  3,346 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,890  3,404  3,600  150  -346  3,328 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,870  3,407  3,600  150  -343  3,304 
Guangdong 6,100  2,840  3,372  3,600  150  -378  3,318 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,180  3,110  3,477  3,400  160  -83  3,214 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  2,960  3,333  3,520  160  -347  3,394 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,980  2,940  3,309  3,540  160  -391  3,429 
Boxing, Shandong 6,040  2,900  3,286  3,560  160  -434  3,442 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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