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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--19/8/2019

2019-08-19 www.cofeed.com
Today (Aug. 19th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans closed higher last Friday, but meal futures fluctuate to nudge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal go ups and downs by 10-20 yuan/tonne from last Friday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,830-2,890 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,890, Shandong 2,850-2,870, Jiangsu 2,840-2,880, Dongguan 2,830-2,870, Guangxi 2,860-2,880 and Fujian 2,840-2,890). The weather forecast calls for rains in U.S. Midwest in the next few days, which is favorable to soybean crop development. And the African swine fever has been reported in Jiangsu recently, and some mills are still choke-full with soybean meal as there is not much improvement in demand. These are all negative to soybean meal prices. But the protracted U.S.-China trade war and the underlying weather speculation on U.S. soybeans will help soybean meal prices remain resilient. Overall, the short-term prices may fluctuate at a narrow range to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can stay on the sidelines for the moment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan at 2,410-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,410, down 20; and Fujian 2,430, down 20). The share of rapeseed meal in feed has been substantially supplanted by soybean meal due to their largely narrowed price gap. And buyers now remain cautious on account of a significant rise in import cost, huge soybean arrivals at ports, and the overall dismal demand for meals under the ASF. But the inventory of rapeseed meal declined by 10% weekly to 38,000 tonnes last week. In addition, mills will have to lower down their rapeseed crush due to a tight outlook of rapeseed supply amid pending issues between Beijing and Ottawa, and the market may raise a round of weather speculation on U.S. soybean crops at any time. Hence, rapeseed meal prices are supported to have limited declines. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range to adjust, bu the overall trend will stay strong a little bit. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price stays stable today with some negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,700-9,900 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,300-10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 10,300-10,600 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 133,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 84,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 20,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The price steadily edges lower today: it is down by 10 yuan at 1,270 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and lower by 10 USD at 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. Due to a slowdown in demand growth from aquaculture and a smaller hog herd subject to the African swine fever, fishmeal consumption is limited. Meanwhile, the market is in a glut and the inventory stays at a high level at ports with continuous arrivals of new fishmeal from Peru. As holders are under sales pressure, fishmeal prices are also restricted. Overall, short-term fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a weak trend.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 50-200 yuan/tonne and some decline of 50 yuan/tonne, due to the low operation rate and low cottonseed meal inventory. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever with the number of China's live hogs in July declining by 9.4% month on month, down 32.2% year on year, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Moreover, the narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal curbs cottonseed meal market as well.   Short-term prices are likely to stay stable with some fluctuations, and buyers are suggested to stay on the sideline for the present.

(USD $1=CNY 7.04)