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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 20/8/2019

2019-08-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,486  3,849  150 -513 3,619 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,457  3,849  150 -542 3,636 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,435  3,849  150 -564 3,614 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,870  3,432  3,849  150 -567 3,588 
Guangdong 6,070  2,840  3,397  3,849  150 -602 3,602 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,486  3,797  150 -461 3,553 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,457  3,797  150 -490 3,570 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,435  3,797  150 -512 3,548 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,870  3,432  3,797  150 -515 3,522 
Guangdong 6,070  2,840  3,397  3,797  150 -550 3,536 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,546  3,309  150  87  2,859 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,517  3,309  150  58  2,877 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,495  3,309  150  36  2,854 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,870  3,493  3,309  150  34  2,827 
Guangdong 6,070  2,840  3,458  3,309  150  -1  2,842 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,426  3,225  150  51  2,905 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,398  3,225  150  23  2,921 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,374  3,225  150  -1  2,901 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,870  3,371  3,225  150  -4  2,875 
Guangdong 6,070  2,840  3,336  3,225  150  -39  2,889 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,456  3,600  150  -294  3,342 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,428  3,600  150  -322  3,358 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,405  3,600  150  -345  3,337 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,870  3,401  3,600  150  -349  3,311 
Guangdong 6,070  2,840  3,367  3,600  150  -383  3,325 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,150  3,120  3,480  3,400  160  -80  3,220 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,000  2,970  3,336  3,520  160  -344  3,400 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,930  2,950  3,309  3,540  160  -391  3,439 
Boxing, Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,283  3,560  160  -437  3,446 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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