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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 21/8/2019

2019-08-21 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,504  3,851  150 -497 3,619 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,459  3,851  150 -542 3,636 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,435  3,851  150 -566 3,617 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,890  3,452  3,851  150 -549 3,585 
Guangdong 6,120  2,850  3,414  3,851  150 -587 3,593 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,504  3,799  150 -445 3,553 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,459  3,799  150 -490 3,570 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,435  3,799  150 -514 3,551 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,890  3,452  3,799  150 -497 3,520 
Guangdong 6,120  2,850  3,414  3,799  150 -535 3,527 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,564  3,311  150  103  2,859 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,519  3,311  150  58  2,877 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,495  3,311  150  34  2,857 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,890  3,513  3,311  150  52  2,824 
Guangdong 6,120  2,850  3,476  3,311  150  15  2,832 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,444  3,232  150  62  2,912 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,400  3,232  150  18  2,928 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,375  3,232  150  -7  2,909 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,890  3,390  3,232  150  8  2,880 
Guangdong 6,120  2,850  3,353  3,232  150  -29  2,887 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,474  3,600  150  -276  3,339 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,429  3,600  150  -321  3,356 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,900  3,405  3,600  150  -345  3,337 
Jiangsu 6,150  2,890  3,421  3,600  150  -329  3,307 
Guangdong 6,120  2,850  3,384  3,600  150  -366  3,314 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,160  3,140  3,498  3,400  160  -62  3,218 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  2,990  3,354  3,520  160  -326  3,398 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,940  2,950  3,310  3,540  160  -390  3,437 
Boxing, Shandong 6,030  2,920  3,301  3,560  160  -419  3,444 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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