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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 22/8/2019

2019-08-22 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,524  3,877  150 -503 3,647 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,489  3,877  150 -539 3,662 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,930  3,459  3,877  150 -569 3,650 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,920  3,481  3,877  150 -546 3,611 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,877  150 -571 3,623 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,524  3,826  150 -452 3,583 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,489  3,826  150 -488 3,597 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,930  3,459  3,826  150 -518 3,585 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,920  3,481  3,826  150 -495 3,547 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,826  150 -520 3,559 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,584  3,330  150  104  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,548  3,330  150  68  2,894 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,930  3,519  3,330  150  39  2,881 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,920  3,543  3,330  150  63  2,841 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,517  3,330  150  37  2,853 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,463  3,254  150  59  2,935 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,429  3,254  150  25  2,949 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,930  3,398  3,254  150  -6  2,937 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,920  3,419  3,254  150  15  2,901 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,394  3,254  150  -10  2,912 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,493  3,560  150  -217  3,284 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,459  3,560  150  -251  3,298 
Costal Shandong 6,020  2,930  3,428  3,560  150  -282  3,286 
Jiangsu 6,180  2,920  3,450  3,560  150  -260  3,249 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,425  3,560  150  -285  3,261 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,180  3,160  3,517  3,500  160  -143  3,339 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,010  3,373  3,620  160  -407  3,519 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  2,980  3,339  3,640  160  -461  3,556 
Boxing, Shandong 6,020  2,960  3,331  3,660  160  -489  3,571 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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