Today (Aug. 22nd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed higher last night as the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour found pod counts this year were below the average in both Nebraska and Indiana, and meal futures extend gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal follow to go up by 10-40 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases, but the trading remains tepid at high levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2,870-2,950 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,950, Shandong 2,850-2,940, Jiangsu 2,890-2,940, Dongguan 2,880-2,900, Guangxi 2,880-2,910 and Fujian 2,870-2,900). The estimates by the Crop Tour may point to a lower yield, and Brazilian soybeans see high premiums on a tight supply outlook. Meanwhile, the demand for soybean meal is boosted as the spot market is stocking up for the Mid-autumn festival, so both the trading and the delivery are improving in recent few days. The inventory has declined by 3.6% weekly to 900,000 tonnes nationwide, making the pressure slightly decrease. Therefore, short-term soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate to go upward. But the rampant African swine fever (ASF) has cut the sales volume of hog feed by nearly 40% year on year in July, and will continue to curb the demand, so soybean meal prices will see limited upward potential. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not to drive up prices excessively. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges higher in price today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan at 2,420-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,440, up 30; and Fujian 2,420, up 10). Rapeseed faces tight supply in China due to pending issues with Canada, and an early fall freeze could do also some damage to soybean crops this year; thus, short-term rapeseed meal prices may be buoyed to fluctuate to rebound. But the share of rapeseed meal in feed has been substantially supplanted by soybean meal due to their largely narrowed price gap. Furthermore, soybean import is expected to be huge since domestic importers have bought another 12 cargoes from South America due to good crush margins, soybean crush may thus gradually increase. And the rampant ASF has cut the sales volume of hog feed by nearly 40% year on year in July, and will continue to curb the demand. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices will have limited upward space. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not to drive up prices excessively. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price stays stable to edge lower today with some negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced lower by 100 yuan at 9,600-9,900 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, lower by 200 yuan at 9,800-10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, lower by 200 yuan at 10,100-10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and lower by 200 yuan at 10,500-10,900 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and steadily at 10,000-10,500 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 136,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 87,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices keep steady with some declines in foreign markets today: it is 1,270 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is down by 60 yuan at 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content down by 70 yuan at 1,520 USD/tonne. Due to a slowdown in demand growth from aquaculture and a smaller hog herd subject to the African swine fever, fishmeal consumption is limited. Meanwhile, the market is in a glut and the inventory stays at a high level at ports with continuous arrivals of new fishmeal from Peru. As holders are under sales pressure, fishmeal prices are also restricted. Overall, short-term fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a weak trend.

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable due to the low operation rate and low cottonseed meal inventory. And today meals on DCE further rise, and spot soybean meal lift 10-40 yuan/tonne accordingly. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever and the hog feed sales in July decline by almost 40% from the same period last year. Moreover, soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate with strong trend and buyers had better maintain proper stock level upon low price, and not chase high.