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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 23/8/2019

2019-08-23 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,538  3,874  150 -487 3,646 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,501  3,874  150 -524 3,663 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,950  3,471  3,874  150 -554 3,651 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,930  3,485  3,874  150 -539 3,612 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,874  150 -568 3,619 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,538  3,813  150 -426 3,569 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,501  3,813  150 -463 3,585 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,950  3,471  3,813  150 -493 3,573 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,930  3,485  3,813  150 -478 3,535 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,813  150 -507 3,542 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,598  3,339  150  109  2,892 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,560  3,339  150  71  2,910 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,950  3,531  3,339  150  42  2,897 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,930  3,547  3,339  150  58  2,857 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,517  3,339  150  28  2,865 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,477  3,257  150  70  2,941 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,441  3,257  150  34  2,957 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,950  3,411  3,257  150  4  2,946 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,930  3,424  3,257  150  17  2,909 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,394  3,257  150  -13  2,916 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,507  3,560  150  -203  3,286 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,471  3,560  150  -239  3,303 
Costal Shandong 6,000  2,950  3,441  3,560  150  -270  3,291 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,930  3,454  3,560  150  -256  3,254 
Guangdong 6,130  2,900  3,425  3,560  150  -285  3,261 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,170  3,180  3,531  3,500  160  -129  3,341 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,030  3,387  3,620  160  -393  3,521 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,950  3,000  3,352  3,640  160  -448  3,560 
Boxing, Shandong 6,020  2,980  3,347  3,660  160  -473  3,571 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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