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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 26/8/2019

2019-08-26 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,628  4,014  150 -536 3,799 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,573  4,014  150 -591 3,809 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,040  3,568  4,014  150 -596 3,794 
Jiangsu 6,280  3,020  3,579  4,014  150 -585 3,761 
Guangdong 6,250  3,000  3,558  4,014  150 -607 3,768 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,628  3,951  150 -473 3,719 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,573  3,951  150 -528 3,729 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,040  3,568  3,951  150 -533 3,714 
Jiangsu 6,280  3,020  3,579  3,951  150 -522 3,681 
Guangdong 6,250  3,000  3,558  3,951  150 -544 3,688 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,689  3,370  150  169  2,906 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,633  3,370  150  113  2,916 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,040  3,630  3,370  150  110  2,901 
Jiangsu 6,280  3,020  3,642  3,370  150  122  2,866 
Guangdong 6,250  3,000  3,620  3,370  150  100  2,873 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,566  3,254  150  162  2,914 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,512  3,254  150  108  2,924 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,040  3,507  3,254  150  103  2,910 
Jiangsu 6,280  3,020  3,516  3,254  150  112  2,878 
Guangdong 6,250  3,000  3,495  3,254  150  91  2,885 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,597  3,560  150  -113  3,263 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,542  3,560  150  -168  3,272 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,040  3,538  3,560  150  -173  3,258 
Jiangsu 6,280  3,020  3,548  3,560  150  -162  3,226 
Guangdong 6,250  3,000  3,526  3,560  150  -184  3,233 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,270  3,270  3,619  3,500  160  -41  3,321 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,120  3,120  3,475  3,620  160  -305  3,501 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,080  3,060  3,421  3,640  160  -379  3,534 
Boxing, Shandong 6,150  3,080  3,448  3,660  160  -372  3,545 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.


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