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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 27/8/2019

2019-08-27 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,585  4,027  150 -592 3,839 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,582  4,027  150 -595 3,813 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,010  3,545  4,027  150 -633 3,811 
Jiangsu 6,250  3,020  3,573  4,027  150 -604 3,784 
Guangdong 6,220  2,950  3,512  4,027  150 -665 3,791 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,585  3,988  150 -553 3,790 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,582  3,988  150 -556 3,764 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,010  3,545  3,988  150 -594 3,761 
Jiangsu 6,250  3,020  3,573  3,988  150 -565 3,735 
Guangdong 6,220  2,950  3,512  3,988  150 -626 3,742 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,645  3,404  150  91  2,975 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,643  3,404  150  89  2,947 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,010  3,606  3,404  150  52  2,944 
Jiangsu 6,250  3,020  3,636  3,404  150  82  2,916 
Guangdong 6,220  2,950  3,575  3,404  150  21  2,924 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,525  3,288  150  87  2,980 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,521  3,288  150  83  2,955 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,010  3,483  3,288  150  45  2,953 
Jiangsu 6,250  3,020  3,511  3,288  150  73  2,928 
Guangdong 6,220  2,950  3,450  3,288  150  12  2,935 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,555  3,560  150  -155  3,286 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,551  3,560  150  -159  3,261 
Costal Shandong 6,140  3,010  3,514  3,560  150  -196  3,258 
Jiangsu 6,250  3,020  3,542  3,560  150  -168  3,233 
Guangdong 6,220  2,950  3,481  3,560  150  -229  3,240 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,170  3,240  3,579  3,500  160  -81  3,341 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,090  3,435  3,620  160  -345  3,521 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,130  3,060  3,429  3,640  160  -371  3,524 
Boxing, Shandong 6,120  3,050  3,419  3,660  160  -401  3,551 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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