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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 28/8/2019

2019-08-28 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,575  3,997  150 -572 3,814 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,567  3,997  150 -580 3,794 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,010  3,529  3,997  150 -618 3,792 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,980  3,519  3,997  150 -628 3,775 
Guangdong 6,160  2,950  3,501  3,997  150 -646 3,768 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,575  3,956  150 -531 3,762 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,567  3,956  150 -539 3,742 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,010  3,529  3,956  150 -577 3,740 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,980  3,519  3,956  150 -587 3,723 
Guangdong 6,160  2,950  3,501  3,956  150 -605 3,716 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,635  3,385  150  100  2,963 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,627  3,385  150  92  2,943 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,010  3,590  3,385  150  55  2,941 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,980  3,580  3,385  150  45  2,923 
Guangdong 6,160  2,950  3,563  3,385  150  28  2,915 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,516  3,287  150  79  2,990 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,506  3,287  150  69  2,972 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,010  3,469  3,287  150  32  2,970 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,980  3,458  3,287  150  21  2,954 
Guangdong 6,160  2,950  3,439  3,287  150  2  2,947 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,546  3,560  150  -164  3,298 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,537  3,560  150  -173  3,279 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,010  3,499  3,560  150  -211  3,277 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,980  3,488  3,560  150  -222  3,261 
Guangdong 6,160  2,950  3,470  3,560  150  -240  3,254 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,120  3,240  3,571  3,500  160  -89  3,351 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,090  3,427  3,620  160  -353  3,531 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,060  3,416  3,640  160  -384  3,540 
Boxing, Shandong 6,100  3,020  3,392  3,660  160  -428  3,555 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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