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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 29/8/2019

2019-08-29 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,603  4,018  150 -565 3,835 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,573  4,018  150 -595 3,833 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,561  4,018  150 -607 3,818 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,020  3,554  4,018  150 -614 3,797 
Guangdong 6,140  2,980  3,521  4,018  150 -647 3,799 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,603  3,980  150 -527 3,787 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,573  3,980  150 -557 3,785 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,561  3,980  150 -569 3,770 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,020  3,554  3,980  150 -576 3,749 
Guangdong 6,140  2,980  3,521  3,980  150 -609 3,751 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,663  3,386  150  127  2,959 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,633  3,386  150  97  2,957 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,622  3,386  150  86  2,942 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,020  3,616  3,386  150  80  2,919 
Guangdong 6,140  2,980  3,582  3,386  150  46  2,922 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,543  3,305  150  88  3,009 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,513  3,305  150  58  3,006 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,500  3,305  150  45  2,993 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,020  3,493  3,305  150  38  2,972 
Guangdong 6,140  2,980  3,459  3,305  150  4  2,974 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,573  3,560  150  -137  3,293 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,543  3,560  150  -167  3,291 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,531  3,560  150  -179  3,277 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,020  3,524  3,560  150  -186  3,256 
Guangdong 6,140  2,980  3,490  3,560  150  -220  3,258 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,140  3,270  3,598  3,500  160  -62  3,347 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,120  3,454  3,620  160  -326  3,527 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,080  3,424  3,640  160  -376  3,550 
Boxing, Shandong 6,070  3,040  3,403  3,660  160  -417  3,561 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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