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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--29/8/2019

Today (Aug. 29th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4050 yuan/tonne, and Canada soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4860 yuan/tonne. China's market is propped up when imported and distributed soybean in Tianjin port is small; demand turns better; US soybean import in the short run is restricted amid U.S.-China trade tension. However, the market is curbed as the global soybean supply is ample amid the bumper harvest in South America; China increase the purchase of Argentina soybean, up to 1070,000 tonnes, up by 328% month on month, according to China Customs. Short-term prices likely maintain stable.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are partially stable with most purchase activities suspending, due to the declining supply of cottonseed, and a certain period before the marketing of new cottonseed amid a few cotton harvest in some regions. However, the cottonseed trading is not much as only a few mills are operating due to poor crush margin. Short-term cottonseed is likely to go strong. Buyers thereby had better make a small replenishment upon low prices and not chase high bids too far.


Summary: U.S. soybean closed higher last night on worries of early frost, and oil futures fluctuate to adjust on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. In the spot markets, soybean oil steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonnes, and palm oil drops by 10-40 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Soybean oil inventory posts a sustain downward trend in China. Meanwhile, Brazil?soybean?premiums rise due to U.S.-China trade war, and soybean import has increased greatly as the Chinese yuan keeps sliding and the ocean freight from Brazil to China has risen to 43 USD/tonne. In addition to smaller margins in soybean crush, soybean oil has also seen slight price inversion again. And the market has shown a sign for the speculation on the impact of the frost on U.S. soybean crops. Hence, soybean oil market is resilient. Hoever, soybean crush is expected to go above 1.80 mln tonnes both this week and next week amid eased soybean meal inventory, and the market has slowed down its demand as the restocking for the festival is about to end in the middle of September; thus, there is an increasing drag on the upward trend. Short-term market may follow futures to fluctuate narrowly to go strong, and participants need to be more cautious. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,980-6,230 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, partially fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 6,010-6,020, Rizhao 6,080, Zhangjiagang 6,250, and Guangzhou 6,080-6,090). 

Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,860-4,960 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly down by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin not offered; Rizhao 4,960, down 40; Zhangjiagang 4,930, down 10; Guangzhou 4,860, down 40; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 20-30 yuan at 7,550-7,620 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,550, up 30; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,620). Rapeseed will be in tight supply as the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil is confronted with unsettled issues between Beijing and Ottawa, so rapeseed supply is getting tightened, so that mills have to lower down rapeseed crush. Besides, mills are propping up prices as soybean may see a supply gap in the fourth quarter amid tensions between Washington and Beijing. However, soybean crush is expected to go above 1.80 mln tonnes both this week and next week, and the market is about to finish restocking for the festival in the middle of September; hence, the price rise may be capped. Short-term rapeseed oil is predicted to fluctuate narrowly at the high level to stay strong, and buyers can keep light stockpiles. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne. The market is supported by the low operation rates and stock as well as a quick delivery pace in some factories. However, the upward potential is dragged down due to the limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oils, and the slowing-down demand as the restocking ahead of holiday is about to end in the middle of September. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to stay stable with strong trend. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sideline or take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.

(USD $1=CNY 7.09)