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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 30/8/2019

2019-08-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,572  4,037  150 -615 3,879 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,550  4,037  150 -637 3,876 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,561  4,037  150 -626 3,843 
Jiangsu 6,090  3,000  3,527  4,037  150 -660 3,835 
Guangdong 6,140  2,950  3,497  4,037  150 -690 3,823 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,572  3,969  150 -547 3,793 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,550  3,969  150 -569 3,790 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,561  3,969  150 -558 3,756 
Jiangsu 6,090  3,000  3,527  3,969  150 -592 3,749 
Guangdong 6,140  2,950  3,497  3,969  150 -622 3,737 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,631  3,377  150  104  2,968 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,609  3,377  150  82  2,966 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,622  3,377  150  95  2,930 
Jiangsu 6,090  3,000  3,588  3,377  150  61  2,923 
Guangdong 6,140  2,950  3,559  3,377  150  32  2,910 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,513  3,280  150  83  2,995 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,491  3,280  150  61  2,993 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,500  3,280  150  70  2,961 
Jiangsu 6,090  3,000  3,466  3,280  150  36  2,954 
Guangdong 6,140  2,950  3,436  3,280  150  6  2,943 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,542  3,560  150  -168  3,312 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,521  3,560  150  -190  3,310 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,050  3,531  3,560  150  -179  3,277 
Jiangsu 6,090  3,000  3,497  3,560  150  -213  3,270 
Guangdong 6,140  2,950  3,466  3,560  150  -244  3,258 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,060  3,250  3,570  3,500  160  -90  3,363 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,910  3,100  3,426  3,620  160  -354  3,543 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  3,070  3,403  3,640  160  -397  3,566 
Boxing, Shandong 6,040  3,020  3,382  3,660  160  -438  3,567 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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