Today (Aug. 30th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans closed with gains last night on worry about frost, but meal futures open lower to decline on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Domestic prices fall on hope for the restart of trade talks because China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the trade teams of China and the United States have maintained effective communications, and China makes a stand against any escalation in trade war and is willing to settle the disputes through negotiation and cooperation with a calm attitude. Besides, a report by Bloomberg implied that China would not promptly take countermeasures against new tariffs by the United States, and Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States had on that day scheduled a talk with China about trade issues. Spot bids for soybean meal go down by 10-30 yuan/tonne in light trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,950-3,070 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 3,070, Shandong 3,010-3,050, Jiangsu 2,970-2,980, Dongguan 2,950-3,020, and Guangxi 3,000-3,020). Hog feed consumption has posted a year on year decline of 40% under the spread of the African swine fever (ASF), so that meal prices are curbed. However, soybean import cost remains high due to the devaluation of Chinese yuan and tight supply in Brazil in the fourth quarter. Besides, enterprises are active in replenishing due to handsome margins in layer breeding, and broiler breeding is also recovering gradually. And the demand from fish farming is also increasing thanks to its rising prices. Therefore, soybean meal shipment has improved amid overall higher demand for meals. Signs from U.S.-China trade disputes remain capricious, and there is also a sign of speculation on the impact of frost on U.S. soybean crops. Mills post strong desire to prop up prices, so soybean meal prices show limited declines. And in the short term, the trend may fluctuate and stay strong, and buyers can wait due to the correction of futures prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-40 yuan at 2,400-2,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,440, down 30; and Fujian 2,400, down 30). Although the price gap has slightly enlarged between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, feed plants still have no intention to raise rapeseed meal percentage from its lowest level. Moreover, there is no much improvement in the demand for meals under the spread of the ASF. Meal prices are thus curbed. However, rapeseed supply is getting tightened due to pending issues between China and Canada, so that its crush has dropped significantly. And that is a support to the rapeseed meal prices. On the whole, short-term rapeseed meal prices may fluctuate at a narrow range, but the overall strong trend will not break easily. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment on the dips. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price decline today with some negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced lower by 100-200 yuan separately at 9,400-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,600-10,100 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,000-10,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 10,000-10,400 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 137,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 89,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices step down in foreign markets today: it is 1,240 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,350 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content, down by 20 USD respectively. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne. Spot prices in China is capped by lower quotations in foreign markets. Meanwhile, the demand growth is slow from domestic aquaculture, and hog feed also have low demand for fishmeal due to a smaller hog herd under the impact of the ASF. And with continues arrivals of new Peruvian fishmeal, domestic market is in a glut with growing inventory so that holders have to cut down quotations under sales pressure. These are all negative to domestic fishmeal market, so short-term trend is predicted to be weak. 

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable due to the low operation rate and low cottonseed meal inventory. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever and the hog feed sales decline by almost 40% year on year. Moreover, soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal. The economic and trade negotiation teams of China and the United States have maintained effective communication and China hope the United States can meet China halfway and properly solve the economic and trade disputes between the two countries on the basis of equality and mutual respect, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday. And President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. and China are scheduled to have a conversation about trade today, and Trump’s comments followed signs from China that it wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase, according to Bloomberg. Today meals on DCE decline with low open, and spot soybean meal drops 10-30 yuan/tonne. All these drag down cottonseed meal market. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines due to the correction.