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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 2/9/2019

2019-09-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,609  4,051  150 -592 3,879 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,568  4,051  150 -634 3,882 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,080  3,581  4,051  150 -620 3,865 
Jiangsu 6,120  3,060  3,580  4,051  150 -621 3,846 
Guangdong 6,120  2,980  3,517  4,051  150 -684 3,846 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,609  3,974  150 -515 3,782 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,568  3,974  150 -557 3,784 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,080  3,581  3,974  150 -543 3,768 
Jiangsu 6,120  3,060  3,580  3,974  150 -544 3,748 
Guangdong 6,120  2,980  3,517  3,974  150 -607 3,748 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,669  3,373  150  146  2,946 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,627  3,373  150  104  2,948 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,080  3,641  3,373  150  118  2,930 
Jiangsu 6,120  3,060  3,641  3,373  150  118  2,910 
Guangdong 6,120  2,980  3,578  3,373  150  55  2,910 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,549  3,270  150  129  2,967 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,508  3,270  150  88  2,969 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,080  3,520  3,270  150  100  2,953 
Jiangsu 6,120  3,060  3,519  3,270  150  99  2,935 
Guangdong 6,120  2,980  3,456  3,270  150  36  2,935 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,579  3,560  150  -131  3,296 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,538  3,560  150  -172  3,298 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,080  3,551  3,560  150  -159  3,282 
Jiangsu 6,120  3,060  3,550  3,560  150  -160  3,263 
Guangdong 6,120  2,980  3,486  3,560  150  -224  3,263 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,130  3,280  3,605  3,500  160  -55  3,349 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,130  3,461  3,620  160  -319  3,529 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,970  3,080  3,419  3,640  160  -381  3,556 
Boxing, Shandong 6,040  3,090  3,438  3,660  160  -382  3,567 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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