Price: The market is supported by the insufficient supply of distributed soybean at ports and a better demand. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Finance announces on its website that it will apply new tariffs of between 5% and 10% on $75 billion worth of goods from the United States. And then Trump tweets that duties on goods imported from China will be increased: on Oct. 1, tariffs on $250 billion China's products will rise from 25% to 30%;  and USTR gave formal notice on Wednesday about the plan to raise tariffs on US$300 billion of Chinese imports from 10 per cent to 15 per cent in two batches, starting on Sunday and on December 15. Amid the escalation of trade conflicts, US soybean imports are restricted. However, the market is curbed as the global soybean supply is ample amid the bumper harvest in South America; China is buying Brazil soybean for year 2020, and increase the purchase of Argentina soybean, up to 1070,000 tonnes from Argentina, and up by 328% month on month, according to China Customs. Short-term prices likely maintain stable. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war and the domestic demand.

Crush: This week (Aug. 24th-30th), soybean crush has continued climbing to a new high this year as mills are satisfied about improved soybean meal delivery. Thereby, the crush totals 1,900,400 tonnes (meal 1,501,316 tonnes and oil 361,076 tonnes), an increase of 195,600 tonnes by 11.47% from 1,704,800 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 53.19%, up 5.47 percentage points from 47.72% last week. As several mills in South China may suspend production for swelling soybean meal inventory, soybean crush is predicted to drop slightly to around 1.85 mln tonnes next week and to around 1.76 mln tonnes the following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 77,440,515 tonnes in the crushing year of 2018/19 (from October, 2018), down 4,400,385 tonnes by 5.37% from 81,840,900 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 54,289,115 tonnes, down 3,151,065 tonnes by 5.48% from 57,440,180 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

 

Inventory: The inventory has decreased this week, as mills have raised their crush to a fresh high this year of 1.90 mln tonnes. On the week as of August 30th, imported soybean inventory is 5,233,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 157,200 tonnes by 2.92% from 5,390,400 tonnes last week and down by 24.86% from 6,964,900 tonnes of the same period last year. However, its supply will be not a problem for the moment as soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level in August and September. 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 35 cargoes with 2.263 mln tonnes this week, a total of 128.7 cargoes with 8.303 mln tonnes for August so far. The import is predicted to be 8.20 mln tonnes for September, 8.0 mln tonnes for October, 7.90 mln tonnes for November and 6.80 mln tonnes for December. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Aug. 26-30, 2019), spot soybean meal further rise. As of this Friday, the price is 2950-3070 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 50-80 yuan/tonne from last week.

Inventory: The inventory has mounted a little higher this week due to a sharp increase in soybean crush. On the week as of August 30th, soybean meal inventory in main domestic coastal oil mills totals 776,600 tonnes, up 44,900 tonnes by 6.14% from 731,700 tonnes last week yet down by 34.62% from 1,188,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush will stay high at 1.85 mln tonnes and 1.76 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, soybean meal inventory is predicted to post slight increases.

Price: This week (Aug. 26-30, 2019), soybean oil is mixed. Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas are 5970-6190 yuan/tonne, fluctuating by 20-90 yuan/tonne.

Inventory: Soybean oil inventory follows the crush to rise. On the week as of August 30th, the inventory has totaled 1,336,350 tonnes, up 16,850 tonnes by 1.28% from 1,319,500 tonnes last week, down 83,650 tonnes by 5.89% from 1,420,000 tonnes last month, and down 303,650 tonnes by 18.51% from 1,640,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,315,980 tonnes.