Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 4/9/2019

2019-09-04 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,150	3,634	4,041	150	-557	3,855
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,120	3,609	4,041	150	-582	3,857
Costal Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,589	4,041	150	-602	3,852
Jiangsu	6,140	3,040	3,568	4,041	150	-623	3,828
Guangdong	6,160	3,000	3,540	4,041	150	-651	3,824

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,150	3,634	3,966	150	-482	3,760
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,120	3,609	3,966	150	-507	3,762
Costal Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,589	3,966	150	-527	3,757
Jiangsu	6,140	3,040	3,568	3,966	150	-548	3,733
Guangdong	6,160	3,000	3,540	3,966	150	-576	3,729

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,150	3,695	3,365	150	180	2,923
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,120	3,669	3,365	150	154	2,925
Costal Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,649	3,365	150	134	2,920
Jiangsu	6,140	3,040	3,630	3,365	150	115	2,895
Guangdong	6,160	3,000	3,602	3,365	150	87	2,890

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,150	3,574	3,263	150	161	2,946
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,120	3,548	3,263	150	135	2,949
Costal Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,528	3,263	150	115	2,944
Jiangsu	6,140	3,040	3,507	3,263	150	94	2,921
Guangdong	6,160	3,000	3,479	3,263	150	66	2,917

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,150	3,604	3,560	150	-106	3,284
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,120	3,579	3,560	150	-132	3,286
Costal Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,559	3,560	150	-152	3,282
Jiangsu	6,140	3,040	3,538	3,560	150	-173	3,258
Guangdong	6,160	3,000	3,510	3,560	150	-200	3,254

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,180	3,280	3,613	3,500	160	-47	3,339
Dalian, Liaoning	6,030	3,130	3,469	3,620	160	-311	3,519
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,020	3,080	3,427	3,640	160	-373	3,546
Boxing, Shandong	6,040	3,090	3,438	3,660	160	-382	3,567
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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