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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/9/2019

2019-09-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,591  4,015  150 -574 3,817 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,602  4,015  150 -563 3,812 
Costal Shandong 6,090  3,050  3,567  4,015  150 -598 3,807 
Jiangsu 6,170  3,000  3,542  4,015  150 -623 3,788 
Guangdong 6,200  2,960  3,516  4,015  150 -649 3,781 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,591  3,979  150 -538 3,772 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,602  3,979  150 -527 3,767 
Costal Shandong 6,090  3,050  3,567  3,979  150 -562 3,762 
Jiangsu 6,170  3,000  3,542  3,979  150 -587 3,743 
Guangdong 6,200  2,960  3,516  3,979  150 -613 3,735 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,651  3,378  150  123  2,934 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,663  3,378  150  135  2,929 
Costal Shandong 6,090  3,050  3,628  3,378  150  100  2,924 
Jiangsu 6,170  3,000  3,604  3,378  150  76  2,904 
Guangdong 6,200  2,960  3,578  3,378  150  50  2,896 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,530  3,273  150  107  2,954 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,542  3,273  150  119  2,950 
Costal Shandong 6,090  3,050  3,506  3,273  150  83  2,945 
Jiangsu 6,170  3,000  3,481  3,273  150  58  2,927 
Guangdong 6,200  2,960  3,454  3,273  150  31  2,920 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,560  3,560  150  -150  3,279 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,572  3,560  150  -138  3,275 
Costal Shandong 6,090  3,050  3,536  3,560  150  -174  3,270 
Jiangsu 6,170  3,000  3,511  3,560  150  -199  3,251 
Guangdong 6,200  2,960  3,485  3,560  150  -225  3,244 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,200  3,240  3,584  3,500  160  -76  3,335 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,090  3,440  3,620  160  -340  3,515 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,070  3,100  3,451  3,640  160  -349  3,536 
Boxing, Shandong 6,080  3,060  3,421  3,660  160  -399  3,559 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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