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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/9/2019

2019-09-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,548  3,967  150 -569 3,771 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,563  3,967  150 -554 3,761 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,010  3,526  3,967  150 -592 3,759 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,970  3,509  3,967  150 -608 3,739 
Guangdong 6,130  2,920  3,472  3,967  150 -646 3,737 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,548  3,932  150 -534 3,726 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,563  3,932  150 -519 3,717 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,010  3,526  3,932  150 -557 3,714 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,970  3,509  3,932  150 -573 3,695 
Guangdong 6,130  2,920  3,472  3,932  150 -611 3,693 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,608  3,321  150  137  2,877 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,623  3,321  150  152  2,867 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,010  3,586  3,321  150  115  2,865 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,970  3,570  3,321  150  99  2,844 
Guangdong 6,130  2,920  3,533  3,321  150  62  2,842 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,488  3,222  150  116  2,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,503  3,222  150  131  2,894 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,010  3,465  3,222  150  93  2,892 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,970  3,448  3,222  150  76  2,874 
Guangdong 6,130  2,920  3,410  3,222  150  38  2,872 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,518  3,560  150  -192  3,293 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,533  3,560  150  -177  3,284 
Costal Shandong 6,040  3,010  3,495  3,560  150  -215  3,282 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,970  3,479  3,560  150  -232  3,263 
Guangdong 6,130  2,920  3,441  3,560  150  -269  3,261 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,140  3,200  3,542  3,500  160  -118  3,347 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,050  3,398  3,620  160  -382  3,527 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,060  3,413  3,640  160  -387  3,544 
Boxing, Shandong 6,020  3,040  3,395  3,660  160  -425  3,571 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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