Today (Sept. 6th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4050 yuan/tonne, and Kazakhstan soybean is down 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday at 4470 yuan/tonne. The market is negative when the demand in Tianjing port is normal; the global soybean supply is huge with a bumper harvest in South America; FCStone estimates show the Brazil 2019/20 soybean production is 121.41 million tonnes, higher than 115.07 tonnes in the previous year. However, China's market is propped up as imported and distributed soybean in port is small and US soybean import is restricted before any substantive progress of US-China trade talks. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely turn stable.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable with a drop of 0.06 yuan/kg, and most purchase activities suspend. The cottonseed market is weighted on due to low operation rate, the almost ending of old seed purchase, and a low purchase willingness for new cottonseed, of which moisture and price are both high. However, the downside potential is limited by the tight supply before the massive marketing of new cottonseed. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude in an anticipation of decline after the massive marketing.

Summary: U.S. soybean fell last night on technical buying and a bumper South American crop prospect after INTL FCStone projected Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean crop at 121.41 million tonnes, up from 115 million in 2018/19. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, soybean oil drops broadly and palm oil posts smaller losses than yesterday. And in the spot market, soybean oil declines by 30-70 yuan/tonne and palm oil fluctuates by 10-30 yuan/tonne in tepid trading, with more purchases for those of bigger losses. China and the United States have put a new round of trade talks on their agenda. Chinese mills now have picked up their operation rates to a very high level in recent weeks, so that soybean oil inventory also reversed its decline to increase to 1.34 mln tonnes last week. Meanwhile, domestic market is about to completed restocking edible oils in mid-September. And India has confirmed an increase of 5% tariff on refined palm oil from Malaysia. Besides, Chinese importer were lured by margins to buy 15 cargoes of palm oil yesterday. Oil market is thus weighed down today. But soybean import cost has surged on rising premiums of Brazilian soybeans and the tight supply outlook in the fourth quarter in South America. And the import margins of South American soybean oil have also seen slight price inversion again. Overall, short-term oil market is predicted to continue its fluctuations to adjust on the back of futures, and buyers with stockpiles in hand can wait for the moment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,020-6,220 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 30-70 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6020-6030, Rizhao traders 6,040, Zhangjiagang traders 6,220, and Guangzhou traders 6,150). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,780-4,840 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,790-4,800, down 10; Rizhao traders 4,840, down 30; Zhangjiagang traders 4,800, down 20; Guangzhou traders 4,780, up 20; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 50-80 yuan at 7,410-7,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,410, down 50; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,500, down 20). Rapeseed in the new season will go marketing in October in Australia, and Chinese importers are said to have purchased 3 cargoes this week. Besides, the court hearing for extraditing HUAWEI financial officer Meng Wanzhou will be held on September 23. Domestic market now remains relatively cautious. In addition, soybean mills have substantially raised their operation rates in recent weeks, and the market is about to complete restocking ahead of festivals in mid-September. Therefore, rapeseed oil market is under pressure. But rapeseed oil markets in eastern and southern China this week have seen the trading at 50,000 tonnes and 16,000 tonnes, respectively. And the import of rapeseed and oil is difficult as there is no practical improvement between China and Canada. Rapeseed oil market is shored up and may see limited declines. The overall market may fluctuate at the high level and buyers can wait for the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a drop of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices when the small-packing oil restocking is about to end; the consumption of cottonseed oil for blending is not a lot; and today soybean oil on DCE declines in wide range, and palm oil on DCE further drops, while spot soybean oil is down 30-70 yuan/tonne, and spot palm oil down 10-30 yuan/tonne. However, the cottonseed oil decline is limited by the low operation rate and almost no inventory in mills. Cottonseed oil is likely to see a drop with fluctuations after the massive marketing of new cottonseed. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.