Today (Sept. 6th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed lower last night on technical buying and a bumper South American crop prospect after INTL FCStone projected Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean crop at 121.41 million tonnes, above 115 million in 2018/19, and meal futures extend broad losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal drop by 20-50 yuan/tonne in less trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2920-3030 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 3,030, Shandong 2,960-3,030, Jiangsu 2,950-3,000, Dongguan 2,920-2,940, and Guangxi 2,950-2,980). China and the United States agreed to hold a fresh round of trade talks. Farmers in the US Midwest will begin to harvest and market their soybeans later this month. And in China, while soybean crush has been raised to a very high level, soybean meal trading is decreasing this week. This can be attributed to a smaller hog herd under the contagious African swine fever and the lower-than-expected demand from aquaculture in South China. Mills in South China now are urging their customers to hurry up delivery to ease swelling inventory. However, mills are still trying to prop up prices on account of high import cost under rising premiums of Brazilian soybeans. On the whole, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to extend its fluctuations to edge lower, and buyers are suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment in small batch. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steps down in price today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan at 2,340-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,400, down 50; and Fujian 2,340). The price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has enlarged to 600 yuan/tonne, but it fails to persuade feed plants to modify the mix. Besides, while soybean crush has been raised to a very high level, the overall demand for meals is dismal. This can be attributed to the contagious African swine fever and the lower-than-expected demand from aquaculture in South China. Moreover, rapeseed in the new season will go marketing in October in Australia, and Chinese importers are said to have purchased 3 cargoes this week. Domestic rapeseed meal market is now in a cautious mood. But there are still positive factors to rapeseed meal prices: tight rapeseed supply amid pending issues between China and Canada and high soybean import cost under the escalating U.S.-China trade conflicts. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal may fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment in small batch. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price stays stable to edge lower today with some negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced lower by 100 yuan/tonne at 9,300-9,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, lower by 100 yuan at 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, lower by 100-200 yuan at 9,800-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and lower by 100 yuan at 10,200-10,500 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and lower by 100 yuan at 9,800-10,300 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 142,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 89,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices keep steady in foreign markets today: it is 1,220 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne. The demand growth is slow from domestic aquaculture, and hog feed also has low demand for fishmeal due to a smaller hog herd under the impact of the ASF. And with continues arrivals of new Peruvian fishmeal, domestic market is in a glut with growing inventory so that holders have to cut down quotations under sales pressure. And domestic fishmeal market is thus restricted. Therefore, short-term trend is predicted to be weak. 

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 40 yuan/tonne for some prices. The demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever and the hog feed sales decline by almost 40% year on year. Moreover, soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal. Today meals on DCE further fall back in wide range, and spot soybean meal drops 20-60 yuan/tonne. However, the decline is curbed by the low operation rate and the almost no inventory in mills. Cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range before the massive marketing, and then have the risk of falling. Buyers should be prudent if chasing high.