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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/9/2019

2019-09-09 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,534  3,941  150 -557 3,745 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,502  3,941  150 -589 3,735 
Costal Shandong 6,030  3,010  3,524  3,941  150 -567 3,728 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,920  3,466  3,941  150 -625 3,711 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  3,941  150 -641 3,711 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,534  3,905  150 -521 3,699 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,502  3,905  150 -553 3,690 
Costal Shandong 6,030  3,010  3,524  3,905  150 -531 3,683 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,920  3,466  3,905  150 -589 3,666 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  3,905  150 -605 3,666 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,594  3,296  150  148  2,853 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,562  3,296  150  116  2,843 
Costal Shandong 6,030  3,010  3,584  3,296  150  138  2,835 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,920  3,527  3,296  150  81  2,818 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,511  3,296  150  65  2,818 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,474  3,200  150  124  2,883 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,442  3,200  150  92  2,873 
Costal Shandong 6,030  3,010  3,463  3,200  150  113  2,867 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,920  3,405  3,200  150  55  2,851 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,389  3,200  150  39  2,851 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,504  3,560  150  -206  3,301 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,472  3,560  150  -238  3,291 
Costal Shandong 6,030  3,010  3,493  3,560  150  -217  3,284 
Jiangsu 6,100  2,920  3,435  3,560  150  -275  3,268 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,420  3,560  150  -291  3,268 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,110  3,190  3,530  3,500  160  -130  3,353 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,040  3,386  3,620  160  -394  3,533 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,990  3,352  3,640  160  -448  3,550 
Boxing, Shandong 6,000  3,040  3,392  3,660  160  -428  3,575 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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