China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 36, 2019)

2019-09-10 www.cofeed.com

I．National stocks

This week (as of Sept. 6), edible palm oil stock totals 578,950 tonnes at domestic ports, up 5.3% from 549,400 tonnes last week and up 22,650 tonnes or 4.1% from 556,300 tonnes the same period last month, and up 115,250 tonnes or 24.85% from 463,700 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 92,300 tonnes, down 3,200 tonnes or 3.3% from 95,500 tonnes last week.

As of this Friday, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil further expand to 1290 yuan/tonne, up 45 yuan/tonne from 1245 yuan/tonne last Friday. However, as the palm oil future abroad further declines, the trading remains thin, totally 6800 tonnes, down 4100 tonnes or 37.61% from 10900 tonnes last week. And therefore the edible palm oil stock at ports increase to more than 570,000 tonnes. Moreover, as the some August arrivals delay to September with an estimated refined palm olein imports of about 550,000 tonnes for Sept., and the percentage of palm oil substituting soybean oil will reduce with the decreasing of temperature, palm oil stock later will see a upward trend.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W36	W35	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W36	W35	Change
Tianjin Port	10.45	7.6	2.85	27.40%	-4.57%	2.4	2.3	0.1
Hebei	0.3	0.5	-0.2	0.00%	-40.00%	0	0.07	-0.07
Shandong Port	3.03	3.45	-0.42	-13.90%	-24.25%	0.48	0.55	-0.07
East China	18	17.75	0.25	-2.44%	10.57%	4	4.4	-0.4
Guangdong	21	20.7	0.3	13.51%	119.44%	2.1	1.95	0.15
Guangxi	1.565	2.04	-0.475	-33.69%	-24.03%	0.25	0.28	-0.03
Fujian	3.55	2.9	0.65	-17.44%	17.94%	0	0	0
Total：	57.895	54.94	2.955	4.07%	24.85%	9.23	9.55	-0.32

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for Sept. this week is up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 670,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate for Oct. this week goes up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 570,000-620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 450,000-500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate of import volume for Nov. is 620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Date	CNF（USD/mT）	Duty Paid(RBM/mT)	DCE(RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/9/2	Oct-19	565	4891	4838	-53
2019/9/2	Nov-19	572.5	4955	4838	-117
2019/9/3	Oct-19	557.5	4817	4856	39
2019/9/3	Nov-19	565	4881	4856	-25
2019/9/4	Oct-19	557.5	4817	4856	39
2019/9/4	Nov-19	565	4881	4856	-25
2019/9/5	Oct-19	553	4757	4768	11
2019/9/5	Nov-19	560	4817	4768	-49
2019/9/5	Dec-09	570	4901	4768	-133
2019/9/6	Oct-19	552.5	4762	4794	32
2019/9/6	Nov-19	560	4825	4794	-31
2019/9/6	Dec-09	570	4910	4794	-116

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Date	CNF（USD/mT）	Duty Paid(RBM/mT)	Qty.（0'000 mT）
2019/9/2	0
2019/9/3	1	Oct	553	4789	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	553	4789	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	555	4796	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	555.5	4800	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	552-556	4771-4805	1.8
2019/9/4	2	Oct	553-555	4775-4796	2.4
2019/9/4	1	Oct	555	4796	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	553	4775	1.2
2019/9/4	2	Oct	553-555	4775-4796	2.4
2019/9/4	2	Oct	554	4788	2.4
2019/9/4	1	Oct	554	4788	1.2
2019/9/4	1	Oct	553	4775	1.2
2019/9/5	0
2019/9/6	0

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