Price: The market is supported by the insufficient supply of distributed soybean at ports, a better demand, and a quicker delivery pace. However, China and US agreed to hold the trade consultations in early October in Washington. Working groups of the two sides will conduct consultations in earnest in mid-September to make full preparations for the high-level talks to achieve substantial progress. China may resume some US soybean purchase. And FCStone estimates show the Brazil 2019/20 soybean production is 121.41 million tonnes, higher than 115.07 tonnes in the previous year. 2019/20 USDA Brazil soybean production by USDA estimate is 123 million tonnes. The huge global supply is negative to China's market. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war and the domestic demand.

Crush: This week (August 31st-September 6th), for swelling soybean meal inventory and soybean shortages among some southern mills, the operation rate has declined as forecast. Soybean crush thereby totals 1,813,150 tonnes (meal 1,432,388 tonnes and oil 344,498 tonnes), a reduction of 87,250 tonnes by 4.59% from 1,900,400 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 50.50%, down 2.69 percentage points from 53.19% last week. Soybean crush is expected to stay at a relatively high level of above 1.80 mln tonnes in coming two weeks, of which it will be at around 1.82 mln tonnes next week and 1.85 mln tonnes that following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 79,253,665 tonnes in the crushing year of 2018/19 (from October, 2018), down 4,289,535 tonnes by 5.13% from 83,543,200 tonnes of the same period last year; in 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 56,102,265 tonnes, down 3,040,215 tonnes by 5.14% from 59,142,480 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018, according to Cofeed. 

 

Inventory: The inventory of imported soybean has increased fractionally this week as mills have unloaded their cargoes arriving at ports. On the week as of September 6th, imported soybean inventory is 5,372,000 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 138,800 tonnes by 2.65% from 5,233,200 tonnes last week yet down by 19.69% from 6,689,700 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean supply is not a problem for the moment. 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 30 cargoes with 1.32 mln tonnes this week, a total of 19 cargoes with 1.255 mln tonnes for September so far. The import is pegged at 134 cargoes with 8.618 mln tonnes in August, below the forecast of 9.105 mln tonnes because 9 cargoes are postponed to September. Meanwhile, the import is predicted to be 8.022 mln tonnes for September, 7.80 mln tonnes for October, 7.70 mln tonnes for November and 6.80 mln tonnes for December. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Sept. 2-6, 2019), spot soybean meal trend is up at the beginning and then down. As of this Friday, the price is 2920-3030 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating in the range of 10-40 yuan/tonne from last Friday.

Inventory: Buyers are hesitant after replenishing last week as the feed demand is subdued by smaller hog herd, so the trading volume of soybean meal is below that of last week to stay at a relatively low level. On the week as of September 6th, the trading volume totals 668,300 tonnes, a weekly decline of 44.87% and a year-on-year decline of 4.30%. Soybean meal inventory thus continues to increase in main domestic coastal oil mills. The inventory totals 789,800 tonnes, up 13,200 tonnes by 1.7% from 776,600 tonnes last week yet down by 22.63% from 1,020,900 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush will stay high at 1.82 mln tonnes and 1.85 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, the inventory is likely to post slight increases.

Price: This week (Sept. 2-6, 2019), soybean oil prices firstly rise and then decline with a big rally on Wednesday. Most prices rise week on week while some decline. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6020-6150 yuan/tonne, mostly up 40-70 yuan/tonne, partially down 10-30 yuan/tonne.

Inventory: On the week as of September 6th, the inventory has totaled 1,331,820 tonnes, down 4,530 tonnes by 0.34% from 1,336,350 tonnes last week, down 43,180 tonnes by 3.14% from 1,375,000 tonnes last month, and down 268,180 tonnes by 16.76% from 1,600,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,300,400 tonnes.