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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 10/9/2019

2019-09-10 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,530  3,919  150 -539 3,712 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,526  3,919  150 -543 3,708 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,990  3,504  3,919  150 -565 3,705 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,919  150 -613 3,676 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,460  3,919  150 -610 3,672 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,530  3,880  150 -500 3,663 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,526  3,880  150 -504 3,658 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,990  3,504  3,880  150 -526 3,656 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,880  150 -574 3,627 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,460  3,880  150 -571 3,622 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,590  3,293  150  147  2,844 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,586  3,293  150  143  2,839 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,990  3,564  3,293  150  121  2,837 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,517  3,293  150  74  2,806 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,521  3,293  150  78  2,801 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,470  3,181  150  139  2,854 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,466  3,181  150  135  2,849 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,990  3,444  3,181  150  113  2,847 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,394  3,181  150  63  2,820 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,398  3,181  150  67  2,815 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,500  3,560  150  -210  3,296 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,496  3,560  150  -214  3,291 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,990  3,474  3,560  150  -236  3,289 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,425  3,560  150  -285  3,261 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,429  3,560  150  -281  3,256 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,130  3,180  3,525  3,500  160  -135  3,349 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,030  3,381  3,620  160  -399  3,529 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  3,020  3,376  3,640  160  -424  3,550 
Boxing, Shandong 6,010  3,020  3,378  3,660  160  -442  3,573 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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