Today (Sept. 10th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans were flat last night, and meal futures nudge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,880-2,990 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,990, Shandong 2,940-2,980, Jiangsu 2,920-2,940, Dongguan 2,900-2,910, and Guangxi 2,940-2,970). China and the United States confirmed to hold another round of negotiations in Washington in earlier October. Soybean crush in China have returned to a relatively high level in recent weeks, but breeding hog amount has posted a month-on-month decline of around 15% by the end of August due to the lingering African swine fever (ASF), according to Cofeed. And the demand from aquaculture in South China is lower than expected. As a result, mills are again choked with soybean meal, with the inventory increasing by 1% to 790,000 tonnes last week in coastal regions. Pressured by the impact of the ASF, upcoming new soybean sales in the US and resumed trade talks, soybean meal may extend fluctuations to fall in short term. But the impact of bearish factors on the prices have diminished slightly after consecutive losses in the past few days, so short-term price trend is likely to post slight technical rebounds. The overall trend will probably fluctuate to post weak adjustments, and buyers with inadequate stocks are suggested to make replenishment in small batch on the dips and remain cautious in driving up prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price stays stable today, of which it settles at 2,300-2,420 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,320; Guangdong 2,420, stable; Fujian 2,300, stable). China and U.S. are sure to resume trade talks in early October, and the import of Russian meal products is allowed. Besides, Chinese buyers continue to buy Australian rapeseed which will go marketing in October, and some private enterprises still buy Canadian rapeseed. As the supply of rapeseed is better than expected, the operation rate returns to normal in recent weeks. According to the survey by Cofeed, the hog herd was down about 15% month on month in the end of August due to the lingering African swine fever. Therefore, there’s little improvement in the demand for meals, and the rapeseed meal market is dragged down to fluctuate to adjust. However, rapeseed meal prices are still supported by the unsolved issues between China and Canada. Since the price continues to fall, and the negative factors bring less influence on it, so the price stays stable today temporarily. Buyers with insufficient inventory can make small replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is quoted lower today with negotiating space at some ports. Quotation at ports: it is priced lower by 200 yuan at 9,100-9,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, lower by 100-200 yuan at 9,400-9,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, lower by 100 yuan at 9,700-10,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and lower by 100-200 yuan at 10,200-10,400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and lower by 100 yuan at 9,700-10,200 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 141,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 88,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices stay stable from foreign merchants today: it is at 1,160 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne. The demand growth is slow from domestic aquaculture, and hog feed also has low demand for fishmeal due to a smaller hog herd under the impact of the ASF. And with continues arrivals of new Peruvian fishmeal, domestic market is in a glut with growing inventory. Domestic fishmeal market is thus restricted with lower quotations. Overall, short-term trend is predicted to be weak. 

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable due to the low operation rate and almost non-inventory. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever with the number of live hogs in end-August declining by about 15% month on month. Moreover, soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal. Today meals on DCE slip, and spot soybean meal drops 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range before the massive marketing of cottonseed, and then have a risk of falling. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.