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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/9/2019

2019-09-11 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,538  3,975  150 -587 3,783 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,516  3,975  150 -609 3,771 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,960  3,484  3,975  150 -641 3,771 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,975  150 -669 3,747 
Guangdong 6,200  2,900  3,469  3,975  150 -656 3,730 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,538  3,900  150 -512 3,688 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,516  3,900  150 -534 3,676 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,960  3,484  3,900  150 -566 3,676 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,456  3,900  150 -594 3,652 
Guangdong 6,200  2,900  3,469  3,900  150 -581 3,635 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,598  3,333  150  115  2,895 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,576  3,333  150  93  2,882 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,960  3,544  3,333  150  61  2,882 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,517  3,333  150  34  2,857 
Guangdong 6,200  2,900  3,531  3,333  150  48  2,839 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,478  3,240  150  88  2,929 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,455  3,240  150  65  2,917 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,960  3,424  3,240  150  34  2,917 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,394  3,240  150  4  2,894 
Guangdong 6,200  2,900  3,407  3,240  150  17  2,878 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,508  3,560  150  -202  3,296 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,486  3,560  150  -224  3,284 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,960  3,454  3,560  150  -256  3,284 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,900  3,425  3,560  150  -285  3,261 
Guangdong 6,200  2,900  3,438  3,560  150  -272  3,244 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,130  3,190  3,533  3,500  160  -127  3,349 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,040  3,389  3,620  160  -391  3,529 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  3,000  3,365  3,640  160  -435  3,544 
Boxing, Shandong 6,010  3,010  3,370  3,660  160  -450  3,573 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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